Paleoclimate studies and natural-resource management in the Murray-Darling Basin II: unravelling human impacts and climate variability

Abstract

The management of the water resources of the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) has long been contested, and the effects of the recent Millennium drought and subsequent flooding events have generated acute contests over the appropriate allocation of water supplies to agricultural, domestic and environmental uses. This water-availability crisis has driven demand for improved knowledge of climate change trends, cycles of variability, the range of historical climates experienced by natural systems and the ecological health of the system relative to a past benchmark. A considerable volume of research on the past climates of southeastern Australia has been produced over recent decades, but much of this work has focused on longer geological time-scales, and is of low temporal resolution. Less evidence has been generated of recent climate change at the level of resolution that accesses the cycles of change relevant to management. Intra-decadal and near-annual resolution (high-resolution) records do exist and provide evidence of climate change and variability, and of human impact on systems, relevant to natural-resource management. There exist now many research groups using a range of proxy indicators of climate that will rapidly escalate our knowledge of management-relevant, climate change and variability. This review assembles available climate and catchment change research within, and in the vicinity of, the MDB and portrays the research activities that are responding to the knowledge need. It also discusses how paleoclimate scientists may better integrate their pursuits into the resource-management realm to enhance the utility of the science, the effectiveness of the management measures and the outcomes for the end users.

Murray-Darling盆地的水资源管理长久来一直倍受争议。最近的千年干旱及其导致的水灾事件效应引起了关于如何合理地给农业、民用和环境分配水供应量的辩论。这个水资源危机驱使我们更想了解关于气候趋势、变换周期、自然系统所经受的历史气候范围以及与过去标准相关的自然系统生态健康状态的更准确信息。近十年来对澳大利亚东南部过去气候进行了大量研究，但本项研究主要专注更长地质时间范围，其时间分辨率较低。 在与管理相关的变化周期的分辨率水平上，产生很少的近期气候变化证据。十年内的和近-年分辨率（高分辨率）记录确实存在，提供了气候变化及多样性的证据，也提供了人类影响系统的证据。目前，有很多研究团体运用一系列代理气候指标，快速丰富了我们关于与管理相关的气候变化和多样性的认识。本文将所有MBD及其相邻地区的气候变化和降雨变化的研究集合在一起，来介绍应知识需求而进行的研究活动。本文还讨论了古气候学家怎样才能更好地将他们的专业追求与资源管理领域结合在一起，以增强科学运用和管理措施效益并提高最终结果。

KEY WORDS:

• southeastern Australia
• climate change
• wetlands
• tree rings
• speleothems
• water resources
• climate reconstruction.

关键词:

• 澳大利亚东南部
• 气候变化
• 湿地
• 树轮
• 钟乳石
• 水资源
• 气候重建

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

This manuscript forms the second part of a review that resulted from research funded by the Murray-Darling Basin Authority (June 2009 to P. Gell). The Murray-Darling Basin Authority has not had any involvement in the collation of data, the preparation of, or writing of this manuscript.