Probability and Sensitivity Analysis in Flotation Circuit of Bama Lead and Zinc Processing Plant Using Monte Carlo Simulation Method

Abstract

The feed to mineral processing plants has fluctuations in assay, particle size, etc. These fluctuations have a strong influence on the efficiency of purifying lead and zinc processes. In simple circuits of mineral processing units, sensitivity analysis is applicable using analytical solutions, but this method is very difficult, time consuming and inaccurate for simulation of complex circuits. Nevertheless, Monte Carlo simulation method is an accepted tool for probability calculation and sensitivity analysis of complex circuits. In this paper, input data are collected from line 1 of flotation circuit of Bama lead and zinc processing plant (Isfahan, Iran) during 3 months of three 8-hour shifts per day. Distribution and probability density function of input data are determined using @Risk software in Excel. Then, the probability density function of output data (flow rates of lead concentrate, zinc concentrate, tailings, recovery of lead and zinc) are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation (with 100,000 iterations). Finally, the sensitivity of output parameters to input parameters is determined.

Keywords:

• @Risk software
• lead-zinc flotation
• Monte Carlo simulation
• probability and sensitivity analysis

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

The authors wish to thank the Production Manager of lead-zinc processing of Bama plant, Amiri Eng, for supplying data.