Improving the Crystal Ball: Predicting Weapons of Mass Destruction

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Notes

1 Ray Kurzweil, The Singularity is Near: How Humans Transcend Biology (New York: Penguin Press, 2006); Nassim N. Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, 2nd ed. (New York: Random House, 2010).

2 Dallas Boyd et al., Thwarting an Evil Genius (Ft Belvoir, VA: Defense Threat Reduction Agency, April 2009).

3 Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow (New York: Farrar, Straus, and Giroux, 2013), details System 1 and its automatic, unconscious processes, whereas System 2 makes slow, thoughtful decisions. The 9/11 attacks awakened the United States to the inadequacy of the status quo, spurring the creation of the Department of Homeland Security and fusion centers designed to share intelligence.

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Notes on contributors

Marianne Taflinger

Marianne Taflinger is a research associate at the Center for Homeland Defense and Security, Naval Postgraduate School. She has recently been published in Defense and Security Journal, a Sri Lankan publication. She has a master’s degree from the Middlebury Institute of International Affairs. She can be contacted at [email protected].