Export diversification, mean-reversion of exports, and stability of export–growth causality

ABSTRACT

This study proposes a five-step statistical procedure to examine a linkage among export diversification, mean-reversion of exports, and stability of the export–growth causality. This linkage was assessed for France, Norway, and Switzerland between 1980Q1 and 2016Q4. The findings indicated that the mean-reversion tendency of the export sectors in France and Switzerland was stronger than in Norway, which highlighted the important role of export activities for economic growth in France and Switzerland. Also, the causal relationship between exports and economic growth in Norway was found to be more unstable than in France, but more stable than in Switzerland.

KEYWORDS:

• Export diversification
• mean-reversion of exports
• stability of export–growth causality

Acknowledgments

The analysis was conducted using the Ox program. The authors are grateful to Professor Jurgen A. Doornik of Oxford University for providing OxEdit free of charge for academic purposes. The current study’s data and OxGauss codes are available at Furuoka’s webpage: https://sites.google.com/site/fumitakafuruokaswebpage/data-and-oxgauss-codes-ii/paper-27. Also available on this webpage are supplementary files containing more extensive discussions on the motivation of the study, the merits of the proposed statistical procedure, the selection and classification of the countries, the empirical findings from the panel data analysis, and the policy implications.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This study was conducted as part of a Jean Monnet Center of Excellence project (Project Number: 586907-EPP-1-2017-1-MY-EPPJMO-CoE). This work was supported by the European Commission.