Statistical modeling of selected aspects of the childbearing process with application to world fertility survey countries∗

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1986 annual meetings of the American Statistical Association under the title “Differentials in model childbearing measures in developing countries.”;

The childbearing process should be monitored in developing countries experiencing high population growth rates and high levels of maternal and infant mortality. A mathematical model for estimation of certain aspects of the childbearing process, which requires only data on age‐specific fertility rates, is developed. Synthetic maternal childbearing indices, namely, mean ages at first and last birth, length of reproductive life span, inter‐birth spacing, and proportion of childless women, in addition to the well‐known mean age at childbearing, for the WFS countries are obtained using the proposed model. The indices are free from age truncation effects, and, under certain assumptions, provide information about a cohort's completed fertility before the women stop reproducing. The effects of women's residence and education on fertility are also examined.

Key words:

• Ages at first and last birth
• reproductive life span
• childbearing model
• age‐specific fertility rates

Notes

An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1986 annual meetings of the American Statistical Association under the title “Differentials in model childbearing measures in developing countries.”;

At the time this study was conducted, Dr. Home was an instructor in the Dept. of Mathematics at the American University in Cairo, Egypt.