Survivability of China's Sea-Based Nuclear Forces

Abstract

The survivability of China's ballistic missile submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles is examined. First, the Type 094 ballistic missile submarine is noisy and vulnerable even in shallow waters. This suggests the urgency for China to improve the quietness of the Type 094. Second, after the deployment of the U.S. interceptor missile, SM-3 Block IIA, in 2018, China's intercontinental ballistic missiles and submarine-launched ballistic missiles launched from Chinese coastal waters would face a three-layer engagement, constructed by SM-3 IIAs deployed near China's coastal waters, ground-based interceptors deployed in California and Alaska, and SM-3 IIAs deployed near U.S. coastal waters respectively. These deployments could undermine the credibility of China's nuclear deterrence. It would be well for China and the United States to work together to improve strategic stability between these two states.

Acknowledgments

The author thanks the Science, Technology and Global Security Working Group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for their hospitality during his visit in September 2009–February 2010, which made this research possible. The author thanks Professor Ted Postol and other colleagues at the program, Dr. David Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists, Dr. Eugene Miasnikov of the Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Dr. Harold A. Feiveson of Princeton University, Dr. Dean Wilkening of Stanford University, Professor Li Bin of Tsinghua University and the anonymous reviewer for their comments on this article, and MacArthur Foundation for financial support.