Own Party Issue Ownership Emphasis in Presidential Television Spots

Abstract

This study employs Petrocik's Issue Ownership theory to examine issue ownership emphasis and election outcome. Television spots from 1952 to 2004, every presidential campaign thus far to employ TV advertisements, were computer content analyzed. Democratic and Republican winners emphasized the issues owned by their own party more than losers (and eight of nine Democrats who emphasized Republican issues more than Democratic issues lost elections). In 11 of 14 elections, the candidate who stressed his own party's issues more than his opponent won the election. Candidates from both political party are more likely to win when they stress their own party's issues more than the other party's issues. These findings are consistent with Issue Ownership theory: Candidates who emphasize the issues owned by their political party should enjoy an advantage at the polls.

Keywords:

• Election Outcome
• Issue Ownership
• Presidential TV Spots
• Political Parties

Notes

Note. Poll by ABC 9/23–26/2002, except † by Princeton Research Associates 10/24–25/2002.

Note. Figures in bold denote an own-party emphasis advantage and an election win. Democrat Gore was considered the winner in 2000 because he received a half a million more votes than Republican Bush (Duchneskie & Seplow, 2000); the prediction tested here concerns voters rather than electoral votes.

Note. Again, Gore was considered the winner in 2000.