A Composite Technique for Modeling and Projecting Food Consumer Behavior

Abstract

Building on existing findings in the field, this research seeks to develop and test a composite technique for modeling and projecting food consumer behavior in the context of rapidly changing ambiguous environment. At Stage 1, a model is developed within which the behavioral patterns along with environmental and psychological factors are functionally related qualitative variables attributed with “quantitative images” or metrics indices. These indices form a system of regression equations, instrumental for statistical forecasting, to enable the scenario analysis of patterns at Stage 2. That is, the model is applied in scenario development to predict changes in a set of patterns, which constitute the predominant deterministic component of the random process of consumer behavior at the food market. To provide testing for the technique, dynamics of the U.S. food “overconsumption” pattern are assessed.

KEYWORDS:

• composite technique for modeling and projecting
• pattern of food consumer behavior
• quantitative image of a complex qualitative variable

Notes

Note. BMI = body mass index; NHES = National Health Examination Surveys; NHANES = National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

Source. Ogden et al., 2006.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Tatiana A. Kokodey

Tatiana A. Kokodey is a graduate and employee of the Sevastopol National Technical University, Department of Management and Mathematical Method; PhD in strategic management.