Early predictors of successful military careers among West Point cadets

ABSTRACT

The importance of leadership to organizational performance puts a premium on identifying future leaders. Early prediction of high-potential talent enables organizations to marshal scarce developmental resources and opportunities to those who are best positioned to show distinction in elevated roles. Much of the existing literature indicates that general mental ability remains the strongest predictor of future professional performance. Using data from 13 classes of West Point graduates who stayed in the Army to be considered for at least early promotion to the rank of major (N = 5,505), regression analyses indicate that cadet military grade point average surpasses both cognitive ability and academic performance by a considerable margin in the ability to predict future professional outcomes such as selection for early promotion or battalion command. Moreover, these differences in predicting managerial career outcomes endure over 16 years. Both practical and theoretical implications are discussed.

KEYWORDS:

• Talent management
• predictors of performance
• career performance
• leadership development
• academic performance

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. Since logit (exponentiated) coefficients are based on 1.0-unit increment changes in the criterion variables, and the standard deviations of our three criterion variables are different from each other (σ_SATTOT = 1.06, σ_MGPA = 0.34, σ_AGPA = 0.43), caution should be taken when comparing the logit coefficients’ magnitudes with each other. Interpreting marginal effects (such as through observing ROC curves) serve as more accurate approach of comparing the relative effect sizes of criterion variables.

2. “West Pointers’ Military Development GPAs include measures of military class performance and of the cadet job performance in eleven followership and leadership positions across their four years as cadets. Unlike typical colleges, West Point, along with other military academies, also teaches and assesses behaviors and skills that are important to being an officer in the Armed Forces. Military GPA is meant to capture potential as an Army leader.” (USMA Brigade Tactical Department (BTD) Policy Letter #20 – Military Development Grading Policy, (2018, p. 3)).