China and the blunt temptations of geo-engineering: the role of solar radiation management in China's strategic response to climate change

Abstract

Amid growing alarm over the rising atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, increasing attention is being given to ‘geo-engineering’ technologies that could counteract some of the impacts of global warming by either reducing absorption of solar energy (solar radiation management (SRM)) or removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Geo-engineering has the potential to dramatically alter the dynamics of global climate change negotiations because it might cool the climate without constraining fossil fuel use. Some scholars have expressed concern that certain states may be tempted to act unilaterally. This paper assesses the approach that China is likely to adopt towards governance of SRM and the implications this holds for broader international climate negotiations. We survey Chinese public discourse, examine the policy factors that will influence China's position, and assess the likelihood of certain future scenarios. While Chinese climate scientists are keenly aware of the potential benefits of geo-engineering as well as its risks, we find that no significant constituency is currently promoting unilateral implementation of SRM. China will probably play a broadly cooperative role in negotiations toward a multilaterally governed geo-engineering programme but will seek to promote a distinctive developing world perspective that reflects concerns over sovereignty, Western imperialism and maintenance of a strict interpretation of the norm of common but differentiated responsibility.

Keywords:

• Geo-engineering
• China
• climate change
• global governance
• solar radiation management

Acknowledgements

The authors thank Hazel Tsang Wing Chui for her invaluable research assistance. We are also indebted to Jeremy Baskin, Alice Sin Yin Chow, Clive Hamilton, Rasmus Karlsson, John Shepherd, Baohui Zhang, Fred Zimmerman and two anonymous reviewers for their comments and advice.

Notes

¹SRMGI is an international and collaborative consultation exercise, co-sponsored by the UK's Royal Society, the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS) and the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) (SRMGI 2011).

²We did not examine the views of wealthy individuals or corporations because military control over China's airspace combined with the CCP's ability to exert extra-judicial pressure on high-profile activists and businesspeople makes rogue SRM activities by such actors far less likely than in Western countries.

³Correspondence with Professor John Shepherd from the School of Ocean & Earth Science, University of Southampton.

⁴We used the CNKI China Academic Journals Full-text Database, the CNKI China Core Newspapers Full-text Database, Chinese news portal websites including Sina, Sohu, ifeng, and QQ, general search engines such as Baidu and Google, as well as websites of the Chinese Academy of Sciences http://www.cas.cn and related government agencies. We also searched http://china.org.cn for English-language news.

⁵See ‘China “blocks Airbus deals” in EU carbon levy spat’, BBC, 8 March 2012, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-17298117; Jonathan Watts, ‘Green group accuses China of climate blackmail’, guardian.co.uk, 9 November 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2011/nov/09/green-group-china-climate-blackmail.

⁶The Lagrangian point (L1) is valuable for SRM as it remains permanently between the Sun and Earth (see McInnes 2010).

⁷The sample of scientists who responded to our inquiries were presumably self-selecting as inclined towards international engagement.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Kingsley Edney

Kingsley Edney is a Lecturer in Politics and International Relations of China in the School of Politics and International Studies at the University of Leeds, UK.

Jonathan Symons

Jonathan Symons (corresponding author) is a Lecturer in Politics and International Relations at Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia.