Explaining United States–China relations: neoclassical realism and the nexus of threat–interest perceptions

ABSTRACT

How to understand and explain the evolutions as well as predict the future directions of bilateral relations between the United States and China has become an imperative task for both policy makers and academic scholars. Borrowing insights from neoclassical realism, this paper suggests a three-stage, perceptual model of ‘threat–interest’ to explore the dynamics of Sino–US relations from 1949 to 2015. It argues that the nature of US–China relations, either cooperation or competition, is mainly shaped by the perceptions of leaders regarding security threats and economic interests between the two nations. How to manage their perceptions regarding each other and how to find a balance between cooperation and competition are the key issues for leaders in both the United States and China to manage bilateral relations in the future. The next decade or two may be the best or the worst times for US–China relations.

KEYWORDS:

• US
• China
• Sino–US relations
• Asian security
• threat perception

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1. The author thanks one of the reviewers for suggesting this point. For more discussions on neoclassical realism, see He (2016, 37–40).

2. For examples of economic balance of power arguments, see Gaddis (1992), Schweller (1993). The author thanks one of the reviewers for suggesting this point.

3. There is another possible explanation, namely, that Chinese leaders intentionally exaggerated the Western conspiracy behind the Tiananmen incident to divert public attention in 1989.

4. It is worth noting that Zhong Sheng is widely considered a pseudonym for the editorial section of the People's Daily, not an individual contributor. Therefore, it represents the official view of the People's Daily.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Kai He

Kai He is an associate professor of international relations in Griffith Asia Institute and Centre for Governance and Public Policy at Griffith University, Australia. His publications include China's Crisis Behavior: Political Survival and Foreign Policy After the Cold War (Cambridge, 2016) and various articles on China's international relations and Asian security in leading journals.