Having much in common? Changes and continuity in Beijing’s Taiwan policy

Abstract

Since the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party won the 2016 election in Taiwan, Beijing’s Taiwan policies have witnessed some strategic and tactical adjustments. This article attempts to clarify the underlying changes and continuity in Beijing’s Taiwan policy by addressing three vital questions. First, for Beijing, what is the prominent concern for its Taiwan policy making? Second, what is the top priority for its ‘great rejuvenation’ ambition? And third, what is Beijing’s guideline for dealing with Taipei’s reluctance to accept reunification? This paper argues that, firstly, how to prevent Taiwan’s de facto independence from perpetuating has become the primary challenge for Beijing, given Taiwan’s inclination to indefinitely maintain de facto independence. Second, Beijing still prioritizes the achievement of comprehensive modernization before the fulfillment of reunification within its overarching ‘national rejuvenation’ timetable. Third, discouraged by Taiwan’s anti-China dynamics, Beijing has switched its guideline for promoting unification from ‘placing hope on the Taiwanese’ to ‘placing more hope on the mainland itself’.

Keywords:

• Cross-strait relations
• de facto independence
• reunification
• Taiwan policy

Acknowledgements

The author would like to extend his sincere appreciation to Professor Shaun Breslin, Professor Zhongqi Pan, and Dr. Oliver Turner for their assistance, and to the anonymous for their helpful comments on the earlier drafts.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Notes

1 Opinion polls made by the Mainland Affairs Council of Taiwan and Election Study Center of the National Chengchi University (retrieved 13 April, 2020).

2 The content of the ‘Three No’s’ policy is ‘no independence’, ‘no reunification’, and ‘no use of force’.

3 The full name of the TAIPEI Act is Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative Act.

4 The first and short-term goal for Beijing is completing the process of building a moderately well-off society and accelerating modernization process by the time the CCP would celebrate its centenary in 2021. The second and mid-term goal is build China into a modern country and reach the level of moderately developed countries by the time the PRC would celebrate its centenary in 2049.

5 Opinion polls made by the Mainland Affairs Council of Taiwan and Election Study Center of the National Chengchi University (retrieved 13 April, 2020).

Additional information

Funding

China’s Ministry of Education Program (17JJDGJW003) and Shuguang Program of Shanghai Government.

Notes on contributors

Qiang Xin

Qiang Xin is a professor and the founding director of the Center for Taiwan Studies at Fudan University. He also serves as the deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan. His research focuses on Taiwan Issue, China-US relations and maritime security studies.