The free and open Indo-Pacific versus the belt and road: spheres of influence and Sino-Japanese relations

Abstract

Recent scholarship suggests that the thawing of diplomatic relations between China and Japan has caused a readjustment of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and Tokyo’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Vision towards an emerging complementarity. Through careful process-tracking, elite interviews, and analysis of Chinese and Japanese primary sources, this article instead demonstrates how, outside of the East Asian spotlight, Sino-Japanese geo-economic competition continues in South Asia and the Mekong subregion, fueled by power politics and a mutual distrust of each other’s initiatives. On the basis of this evidence, this article qualifies Sino-Japanese interactions as a quest and denial for spheres of influence, whereas the Japanese government aims at denying Chinese spheres of influence. In doing so, this article highlights how Japanese proactivism from Sri Lanka to Thailand, via infrastructure and government financing, has become a driver of growing non-traditional security cooperation with India, the U.S., and Australia.

Keywords:

• Belt and Road Initiative
• economic statecraft
• Free and Open Indo-Pacific
• Japan-China
• Mekong
• Quad
• spheres of influence
• Sri Lanka

Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank John Bradford, Liselotte Odgaard, Matteo Dian, Nikolay Murashkin, Alessio Patalano, Rudra Chaudhuri, two anonymous reviewers and two practitioners for poignant feedback. Giulio Pugliese is indebted to the British Academy and the Toshiba International Foundation for support throughout his research activities.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Aurelio Insisa

Aurelio Insisa is Adjunct Lecturer in the Dept. of History at the University of Hong Kong. He holds a B.A. and an M.A. in Oriental Languages and Civilizations (Chinese Studies) from Sapienza University of Rome, and obtained a Ph.D. in Chinese History from the University of Hong Kong in 2017. His email address is [email protected]. Address: Room 10.48, Run Run Shaw Tower, Centennial Campus, The University of Hong Kong, Pok Fu Lam Rd., Hong Kong.

Giulio Pugliese

Giulio Pugliese is Departmental Lecturer at Oxford University’s School of Global and Area Studies. He holds a PhD from Cambridge University and an MA from the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University. His email address is [email protected]. Address: Nissan Flat, 27 Winchester Road, Oxford, OX2 6NA, United Kingdom.