A hybrid method based on wavelet, ANN and ARIMA model for short-term load forecasting

Abstract

In the new competitive electricity markets, the necessity of appropriate load forecasting tools for accurate scheduling is completely evident. The model which is utilised for the forecasting purposes determines how much the forecasted results would be dependable. In this regard, this paper proposes a new hybrid forecasting method based on the wavelet transform, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN) for short-term load forecasting. In the proposed model, the autocorrelation function and the partial autocorrelation function are utilised to see the stationary or non-stationary behaviour of the load time series. Then, by the use of Akaike information criterion, the appropriate order of the ARIMA model is found. Now, the ARIMA model would capture the linear component of the load time series and the residuals would contain only the nonlinear components. The nonlinear part would be decomposed by the discrete wavelet transform into its sub-frequencies. Several ANNs are applied to the details and approximation components of the residuals signal to predict the future load sample. Finally, the outputs of the ARIMA and ANNs are summed. The empirical results show that the proposed hybrid method can improve the load forecasting accuracy suitably.

Keywords::

• artificial neural network
• discrete wavelet transform
• autoregressive integrated moving average
• short-term load forecasting