Economic effects of an E-mobility scenario – input structure and energy consumption

Abstract

The development of a strong domestic market for E-mobility is given a high priority and it is counted as an impulse for the transformation towards a Green Economy in Germany. Replacing the combustion engine by alternative drives can trigger a variety of macroeconomic effects. The paper presents the results of a model-based analysis. In particular, effects on the value chain of the automotive industry and the demand for consumer goods are explicitly modelled. An E-mobility scenario that meets the six million E-vehicles by a 2030 target is compared with a reference scenario. Assuming a substitution of inputs within the automotive industry by inputs from the electrical engineering sector, negative effects in vehicle production are offset by positive effects in energy technology production. For the macroeconomic effects, the development of imports and exports is crucial. In the scenario comparison presented here, short- to medium-term employment effects are slightly positive.

KEYWORDS:

• Electric vehicles
• Germany
• economic effects
• employment
• input–output analysis

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1 The term ‘electric vehicles’ or ‘electric drives’ as used in this contribution comprises the following types of vehicles: battery electric vehicles, range-extended electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrids.

2 The stock of passenger cars is a function of the number of private households. Cars have a lifetime of twelve years. Stock today minus stock of the year before minus retired cars yields new car addition. This fleet model distinguishes eight fuel technologies and their shares in the new additions are set exogenously in the different scenarios. The projected fleet is combined with the transport performance and specific fuel consumptions per km to estimate total fuel consumption. Passenger traffic performance is estimated as a function of disposable income, private consumption and number of households. The kilometrage of the different fuel or technology types is explained by corresponding car stock changes and further assumptions. The fuel consumption by five categories is linked to different purposes of use within the private consumption vector as well as the categories of the energy balance. Even though electric power for EV has – as all other fuel types of private passenger cars – the purpose ‘operation of private vehicles’ within the private consumption it is linked to ‘electricity, gas and fuels’. This ensures that the corresponding supply chain for fuelling the EVs is accounted for.

Additional information

Funding

This research has been supported by the Federal Environment Agency. The full analysis includes additional aspects and contributions by Dietmar Edler, Jürgen Blazejczak, and Christian Lutz; Umweltbundesamt [UFOPLAN 3712 14 101].