A network-based decision tool to model uncertainty in supply chain operations

Abstract

Typical supply chains can be characterised by their complexity and by the inherent uncertainty in their operations. Modelling such supply chains would allow for analysis of the system; however, this is a difficult task both in practice and research. This paper proposes a generalisable network based methodology to model supply chain operations and the uncertainty of system attributes such as lead time and cost. The methodology represents the operation of a supply chain as a high-level network and allows for the inclusion of stochastic variables so that uncertainty in the operation of a supply chain can be modelled and analysed in order to implement changes to improve overall system performance. The use of the methodology is illustrated on an industry application.

Keywords:

• Supply chain management
• Network model
• Uncertainty
• Industry application