Dual dynamics of promises, and waiting games around emerging nanotechnologies

Abstract

Newly emerging science and technologies (NEST) are shaped by dynamics of promises. There is a paradoxical effect: diffuse and open-ended promises are forceful in policy discourse, but may hinder the realisation of these promises. Innovation actors are reluctant to invest in concrete developments because the promises are open-ended, and eventual demand is not articulated. This is a structural issue, and leads to ‘waiting games’ in which actors are entangled. We show how the occurrence of waiting games is linked to dual dynamics of promises in two fields where nanotechnology offers an open-ended (‘umbrella’) promise: organic and large area electronics and nano-enabled drug delivery. Based on such understanding of dynamics, our scenario exercises explored strategies to overcome waiting games.

Keywords:

• umbrella promises
• promise-requirement cycles
• waiting games
• nanotechnology
• organic and large area electronics
• nano-enabled drug delivery
• industry structure

Notes

The term ‘halo’ (around nanotechnology) was introduced by Vincent Bontems in a paper, ‘How to accommodate to the invisible? Nano-impressionism’, contributed to the workshop on ‘Imag(in)ing the Nanoscale. Interactions between science, public media, and art’, Bergen (Norway), 27–29 January 2011.

Ruef and Markard analysed such dual dynamics for one area of fuel cell development; they used the term ‘frame’ for what we called ‘big but open-ended promises’ (Ruef and Markard 2010).

In their analysis of economics of techno-scientific promises, Joly, Rip, and Callon (2010) discuss master narratives of promise, and how this drives policies, but do not recognise how this, paradoxically, can lead to waiting games.

Compare: ‘The calculative agents on the idealised market of economic theory will identify possible “states of the world”, rank them, and define choices and actions in those terms’ (Callon 1998, 4) – which then change the current ‘state of the world’.

The EC created ETPs as a general instrument in order ‘to bring together all interested stakeholders to develop a long-term shared vision, create roadmaps, secure long-term financing and realise a coherent approach to governance’. (European Commission 2004, 10)

This point is emphasised by Rip and Voss (2011) in their analysis of umbrella terms like ‘nanotechnology’ and ‘sustainability’ in science and science policy.

Rip (2011) signalled a funding race (between states) for nanotechnology, rather than innovation races.

Van Merkerk and Robinson (2006) have discussed this as an example of emerging irreversibility, and linked it with the phenomenon of path dependency because of sunk investments.

Cf. Wagner et al. (2006, 36) highlighting big pharma's reluctance to invest in novel technologies in the field of biopharmaceuticals and nanomedicine.

See the seminal work by McDonald and Siegel (1986) and Pindyck (1991) and the literature on irreversible investments. Adoption (e.g. going for a particular development) can be viewed as a strategic switching-time decision problem for agents facing an ongoing stochastic operating benefit, plus sunk investment costs (Moretto 2000).

Ironically, calls of civil society groups for moratoria on the introduction of nanotechnologies like nanoparticles until their safety is ascertained, take the waiting game as a desirable situation.

The case material is based on extensive and detailed study of documents, interviews, observations which have been reported in Te Kulve (2011) and Parandian (2012). The diagnosis of waiting games was used to create scenarios showing repercussions of one or another attempt to overcome the waiting game, which were subsequently used in interactive strategy-articulation workshops with stakeholders in the domain (Te Kulve 2011; Parandian 2012).

The definitions of the new field have not stabilised and different adjectives are used, e.g. flexible, organic, large area, plastic and polymer electronics. The term OLAE is used more generally, as an umbrella acronym, to refer to a field of innovative opportunities of the various technologies and their possible applications.

Strategic Research Agenda Organic & Large Area electronics. 2009. Final Version 1.4. Last retrieved 3 May 2011. http://www.photonics21.org/download/olae_sra.pdf

This IDTechEx report analyses and compares the activities of 248 European organisations in the sector.

Cintelliq is an information service and technology consulting company for organic semiconductors.

This was emphasised by Tom Taylor, CEO of PETEC (UK), during a seminar on plastic electronics in May 2009 organised by the IET Microsystems and Nanotechnology Network and the Institute of Nanotechnology in London. Also in an interview with Michael Butler of Unilever (UK), with one of us (AP).

As Eliav Haskal director of lighting strategic partnership in Philips Company, noted (in an interview with one of us, AP), for the short term they can charge premium prices to make up for the R&D costs they make hoping to supply to mass markets in the future.

This point was emphasised by Hylke Veenstra, of OCE The Netherlands, during his presentation at the Conference ‘Tomorrow's Electronics’, Utrecht (The Netherlands), May 2009, and in an interview with one of us (AP).

Interview (by AP) with Professor Paul Blom – University of Groningen and Holst Centre, Eindhoven.

Interview (by AP) with Professor Andres Dietzel – Eindhoven University and Holst Centre, Eindhoven.

A reverse salient is a subsystem that blocks further expansion of the entire system, so that that improving other subsystems will not make a difference as long as the reverse salient is not overcome (Hughes 1983; Ortt and Dedehayi 2010).

Three scenarios were created to support interactive strategy articulation workshops with stakeholders about OLAE, one in Eindhoven (supported by Plastic Electronics Foundation) and a second one in Heidelberg (supported by InnovationLab GmbH).

From http://www.drugdel.com/glossbot.htm

Delivery devices can not only be used as carriers for drugs but can also be applied for diagnostic (imaging) purposes and in the context of food, as carriers for nutraceuticals.

The notion of a ‘magic bullet’ (Zauberkugel) was introduced by Paul Ehrlich, more than a century ago, to characterise the nature of the newly developed chemical drugs.

Whereas the vision paper was signed by high-level managers of companies such as GlaxoSmithKline and Schering, no big pharmaceutical companies were present within the drug delivery working group of the ETP Nanomedicine.

A European Technology Initiative ‘Innovative Medicines’ has been created, co-ordinated by the European Federation of Pharmaceutical Industries and Associations (EFPIA). It eventually developed into a Joint Technology Initiative in which there was strong participation by large pharmaceutical companies (Innovative Medicines Initiative 2008).

Observations by one of us (HtK) during the conference Investing in Medical Nanotechnologies II, London 2007. See also, Earl (2007).

Three scenarios based on different interventions to overcome the waiting game were developed and discussed in a strategy-articulation workshop with stakeholders, January 2010, organised in collaboration with branch organisations Nefarma and NIABA.

In terms of Hirschman (1970), this is the ‘voice’ rather than the ‘exit’ option.