A technology development framework for scenario planning and futures studies using causal modeling

ABSTRACT

Planning for the future plays a pivotal role in a competitive business world. Scenario analysis is a popular tool for exploring plausible futures and planning. However, the practice of scenario planning is often qualitative, unstructured, and time-consuming. We propose a structured technology development framework by categorising the qualitative variables impacting technology development and identifying their causal relationships. We then use causal loops and expert opinions and the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) method for scenario planning and futures studies. We present a case study in the communications industry to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed framework.

KEYWORDS:

• Technology development
• causal modelling
• scenario planning
• DEMATEL
• futures studies

Acknowledgment

Dr. Madjid Tavana is grateful for the partial financial support he received from the Czech Science Foundation (GACR 19-13946S).

Disclosure statement

The above authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.

Notes

1 The name of the company is changed to protect their anonymity.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by Czech Science Foundation: [Grant Number GACR 19-13946S].

Notes on contributors

Madjid Tavana

Madjid Tavana is Professor and Distinguished Chair of Business Analytics at La Salle University, where he serves as Chairman of the Business Systems and Analytics Department. He also holds an Honorary Professorship in Business Information Systems at the University of Paderborn in Germany. Dr. Tavana is Distinguished Research Fellow at the Kennedy Space Center, the Johnson Space Center, the Naval Research Laboratory at Stennis Space Center, and the Air Force Research Laboratory. He was recently honoured with the prestigious Space Act Award by NASA. He holds an MBA, PMIS, and PhD in Management Information Systems and received his Post-Doctoral Diploma in Strategic Information Systems from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. He has published 21 books and over 300 research papers in international scholarly academic journals. He is the Editor-in-Chief of Healthcare Analytics (Elsevier), the International Journal of Applied Decision Sciences, International Journal of Management and Decision Making, International Journal of Communication Networks and Distributed Systems, International Journal of Knowledge Engineering and Data Mining, International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences, and International Journal of Enterprise Information Systems.

Mohsen Ghasrikhouzani

Mohsen Ghasrikhouzani is a lecturer and senior research associate in futures studies, scenario planning, system dynamics, and technology management at Kharazmi University in Tehran, Iran, where he received his post-graduate degree in business management.

Amir-Reza Abtahi

Amir-Reza Abtahi is Assistant Professor and Chair of the Operations Management and Information Technology department at Kharazmi University in Tehran, Iran. He received his MS and PhD in operations and production management from Allameh Tabataba'i University in Tehran, Iran. He has published several papers in international journals such as Expert Systems with Applications, Reliability Engineering & System Safety, Annals of Operations Research, Optimization Methods and Software, Journal of Mathematical Modelling and Algorithms in Operations Research, and Journal of Industrial Engineering International. His research interest includes applied operations research, applied computational intelligence, and operations management.