Emerging technology identification based on a dynamic framework: a lifecycle evolution perspective

ABSTRACT

Emerging technology plays a crucial role in promoting the development of the industrial economy, and identifying potential emerging technology is significant for innovation strategy. This study aimed to propose an identifying framework that can match the different stages of emerging technology, while most prior studies adopted a static method. Taking high-speed railway track (HSRT) technology as a case study, this paper presents an empirical application based on the growth model of the technology lifecycle, artificial neural network, and ordinal regression. The result indicates that the emerging technology branches of the HSRT technology include B66, C04, B28, and C08 represented by IPC categories, among which B66 is the most prominent. Besides, this study concluded that explosiveness, persistence, breakthrough, and competitive advantage in technology development are the typical characteristics for identifying emerging technology. The contribution of this study is enlightening a dynamic view of technology identification, which promotes the understanding of emerging technology by applying and integrating quantitative methods.

KEYWORDS:

• Emerging technology
• patent layout
• lifecycle evolution
• technology identification framework

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Source: http://www.nra.gov.cn/.

2 Source: https://analytics.zhihuiya.com/.

Additional information

Funding

This research was funded by Ministry of Education in China (MOE) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (20YJC630201).

Notes on contributors

Ben Zhang

Ben Zhang is a lecturer at Law School, HUST, as well as School of Management and Sino-European Institute for Intellectual Property, HUST. He participated in many collaborative research projects on intellectual property and technology cooperation including the US–China CERC Project and the China–EU/EEA NZEC-CCS Project. His recent research interests include intellectual property law and regulation, patent strategy management and technological innovation policy.

Xiang Yu

Xiang Yu is a full Professor at the School of Management (2002) and the Director of the Sino-European Institute for Intellectual Property (SEIIP) of HUST (2018), as well as the Chinese-German Institute for Intellectual Property (2005) at the School of Management of HUST in Wuhan, China. Since March 2017, Prof. Yu also holds the post of the Vice President for international cooperation of Hubei Normal University. He is a Member of Academia Europaea (2020), Member of the IP Experts Group of China (2005), visiting professor or lecture professor in many universities in China and other countries.

Runzhe Zhang

Runzhe Zhang is a doctoral student at Sino-European Institute for Intellectual Property, HUST, as well as School of Management, HUST. He was awarded a Bachelor of Art (German language), and a Bachelor of Architecture at HUST in 2016. He started his master-degree research in 2018, then doctoral research in 2021. His research interests include IP law, patent strategy and technological innovation policy.