Technological trajectories in quantum computing to design a quantum ecosystem for industrial change

ABSTRACT

This study develops a technology analysis to detect technological trajectories in quantum computing that can lay the foundation of a quantum industry. Study design considers data of 10,089 scientific products in ‘quantum computing’ over 1989–2020 period and 19,266 scientific products in ‘quantum computer’ over 1967–2020 period to cover all scientific production in this research field; a complementary analysis considers 8,505 patents over 1977–2020 in ‘quantum computing’ and 9,792 patents in ‘quantum computer’ over 1985–2020 period. Models of technological evolution applied here show main technological trajectories in quantum computing and computer and their rates of growth that suggest path-breaking directions in quantum technology, such as quantum optics, quantum information, quantum algorithms, quantum entanglement, quantum communication and quantum cryptography. Findings here provide information to extend the knowledge in the evolution of quantum computing and computers to support the management of these new technologies and R&D investments towards innovations generating industrial, economic and social change.

KEYWORDS:

• quantum computing
• quantum technology
• quantum ecosystem
• technological change

JEL CODES:

• O31
• O32
• O33

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Notes

1 Technological regime is: ‘the particular combination of technological opportunities, appropriability of innovations, cumulativeness of technical advances and properties of the knowledge base’ (Breschi, Malerba, and Orsenigo 2000, 3688ff).

2 cf. also studies concerning other factors of the sources and coevolution of technology in society: Coccia 2009, 2010, 2012, 2017b, 2017c, 2019, 2019a, 2019b.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mario Coccia

Mario Coccia is Research Director at the National Research Council of Italy (CNR). He has been visiting researcher at the Max Planck Institute of Economics and visiting professor at the Polytechnics of Torino and University of Piemonte Orientale (Italy). He has conducted research work in manifold international institutions, such as Yale University, Georgia Institute of Technology, RAND Corporation, ASU, UNU-Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (United Nations University – MERIT), University of Maryland (College Park), Bureau d’Économie Théorique et Appliquée (Strasbourg), Munk School of Global Affairs (University of Toronto), and Institute for Science and Technology Studies (University of Bielefeld). He investigates, with interdisciplinary methods of inquiry, the determinants of socioeconomic phenomena in the research fields of new technology, sustainable growth, and how environment interfaces with human society. He has written more than three hundred international papers in several disciplines and he is a member of the Editorial Board of manifold international journals.