A quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sex among HIV-seropositive men

Abstract

The objective of this study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment of multiple factors influencing HIV/AIDS transmission through unprotected sexual practices among HIV-seropositive men. A knowledgebase was developed by reviewing different published sources. The data were collected from different sources including Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, selected journals, and reports. The risk pathway scenario tree was developed based on a comprehensive review of published literature. The variables are organized into nine major parameter categories. Monte Carlo simulations for the quantitative risk assessment of HIV/AIDS transmission was executed with the software @Risk 4.0 (Palisade Corporation). Results show that the value for the likelihood of unprotected sex due to having less knowledge about HIV/AIDS and negative attitude toward condom use and safer sex ranged from 1.24×10⁻⁵ to 8.47×10⁻⁴ with the mean and standard deviation of 1.83×10⁻⁴ and 8.63×10⁻⁵, respectively. The likelihood of unprotected sex due to having greater anger-hostility, anxiety, less satisfied with aspects of life, and greater depressive symptoms ranged from 2.76×10⁻⁹ to 5.34×10⁻⁷ with the mean and standard deviation of 5.23×10⁻⁸ and 3.58×10⁻⁸, respectively. The findings suggest that HIV/AIDS research and intervention programs must be focused on behavior, and the broader setting within which individual risky behaviors occur.

Keywords:

• HIV/AIDS
• pathways
• quantitative risk assessment
• Monte Carlo simulations
• CDC

Acknowledgements

This work is supported by a Research Centers in Minority Institutions (RCMI) Award, 2G12RR03059-16, from the National Center for Research Resources, and Export Project Award from the National Center for Minority Health and Disparities, National Institutes of Health (NIH).