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Abstract
The purpose of this study is to estimate the survival probability of patients following their first admission for the treatment of AIDS to an infectious disease reference hospital in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, during 2005. Study subjects were monitored during a 12-month period to identify factors associated with survival probability. Late diagnosis was recorded among many of the 250 study subjects: almost half (44.8%) were diagnosed less than 30 days prior to or during their hospitalization. A high mortality rate was also detected: 39.6% of the subjects died during the 12 months of monitoring. The cumulative survival probability of the cohort group was estimated at 68.0% after 3 months and at 61.2% after 12 months. However, certain patient subgroups analyzed had even lower cumulative survival probabilities after 12 months of monitoring: if diagnosed during hospitalization, it was estimated at only 48.0% and those with no record of antiretroviral treatment had a 48.5% cumulative survival probability. Patients with severe anemia had the lowest survival probability, similar among the two lymphocyte count groups (<1000 mm3 and ≥1000 mm3), the former with a 45.5% survival probability and the latter with a 46.7% one. The proportional death risk was 2.5-fold higher for men residing in other area than the capital city of the State of Minas Gerais and greater metropolitan region when compared with women residing there. The findings of this study highlight the importance of early diagnosis for predicting patient survival and reinforce the necessity of facilitating HIV diagnosis.