Five-year survival analysis and predictors of death in HIV-positive serology patients attending the Military Hospital of Nampula, Mozambique

ABSTRACT

An observational retrospective study was conducted over a 5-year period to assess survival and predictors of death in people with HIV-positive serology undergoing antiretroviral treatment with first-line regimens at the Military Hospital of Nampula, Mozambique. We collected data from 332 patient records. Kaplan–Meier boundary product estimator, log-rank, Gehan–Breslow, Tarone–Ware, time-dependent Cox models and estimates of hazard ratios (HR), with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Meantime survival for females and males was 54.8 months [95% CI 50.32–55.40] and 49.7 months [95% CI 45.89–53.53], respectively. Cox regressions indicated higher death rates significantly or potentially associated with: male sex (HR = 1.3; [95% CI 0.7–2.39]); suspected diagnosis reported only by the physician (HR = 3.6; [95% CI 1.8–7.4]); disease stages III (HR=1.2 [95% CI 0.3–3.6]) or IV (HR 1.4 [95% CI 0.4–5.8]); first TCD4+ lymphocyte count lower than 350 cells per ml (HR = 3.2; [95% CI 0.9–11.2]) or between 350–500 cells per ml (HR = 1.3; [95% CI 0.3–5.8]); or do not present cells count (HR = 3.6; [95% CI 1.2–10.2]). The above variables were significant for HIV prognosis and as predictors of death and should be considered in the clinical care of these patients.

KEYWORDS:

• Survival
• HIV/AIDS
• epidemiology
• Kaplan–Meier
• Cox regression

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

This study was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior – Brasil (CAPES) – Finance Code 001.