New development: Regression-to-the-mean explains the otherwise puzzling coefficients in NHS England’s formula for funding CCGs

Abstract

This paper reviews NHS England’s recent report on the formula that guides the allocation of tens of billions of pounds to clinical commissioning groups (CCGs). It finds deficiencies and errors in the unprincipled construction of the formula and substitutes Sir Francis Galton’s logical concept of ‘regression to the mean’ for the report’s ad hoc conjectures about striking patterns of certain coefficients.

Keywords:

• Econometrics
• Francis Galton
• linear model
• ordinary least squares
• person-based formula

Acknowledgement

I thank Rex Galbraith for the PBRA3 plot matching Fig. 7.3, Jane Galbraith for her challenging comments, and both of them for their patience with my uncertainty about how to respond to the NHSE report.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Mervyn Stone

Mervyn Stone is Emeritus Professor of Statistics at University College London, UK.