Rehabilitating the Terrorists?: Challenges in Assessing the Effectiveness of De-radicalization Programs

Abstract

Renewed interest on how and why terrorism ends has emerged in parallel with increased visibility of some new and innovative approaches to counterterrorism. These are collectively known, whether for good or bad, as “de-radicalization programs.” However, and despite their popularity, data surrounding even the most basic of facts about these programs remains limited. This article presents an overview of the results of a one-year pilot study of select de-radicalization programs and investigates critical issues surrounding assessment of their effectiveness and outcomes. We argue that Multi Attribute Utility Technology (MAUT) may offer promise for future empirical assessment of what we prefer to designate “terrorism risk reduction initiatives.” Perhaps less obviously, and until more data surrounding the efficacy of such initiatives becomes available, MAUT may also provide a conceptual basis for planning, evaluating, and guiding the development of future such initiatives and may have the unanticipated consequence of facilitating progress by encouraging greater exploration of efforts to change behavior from other contexts.

Keywords:

• assessment
• de-radicalization
• disengagement
• Multi Attribute Utility Technology
• prisoner
• recidivism
• rehabilitation
• reintegration
• risk reduction
• terrorist

Acknowledgments

The authors thank David Rapoport, Christopher Boucek, Max Taylor, and two anonymous reviewers, for their helpful comments.

This material is based upon work supported by the Science and Technology directorate of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2008-ST-061-ST0004, made to the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START, www.start.umd.edu). The views and conclusions contained in this document are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing the official policies, either expressed or implied, of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security or START.

Notes

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Ibid.

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Ribetti (see note 28 above).

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Ellen Nakashima, “Indonesian Militants ‘Keep Regenerating’: Jemaah Islamiah Defied International Efforts to Quash it,” The Washington Post, March 25, 2004, sec. A.

Robert Karniol, “De-radicalisation Strategies Worldwide,” The Straits Times, March 31, 2008, Review section, Singapore edition, (http://counterideology.multiply.com/journal/item/171/Just_sharing_-_De-radicalisation_strategies_worldwide_The_Straits_Times_Singapore_31_Mar_2008); See also Natalie O'Brien, “Terrorists Who Say No to Terror,” The Australian, Oct. 22, 2007, Features.

Nasir bin Abbas, interview by Peter Cave, AM Show, Australian Broadcasting Corporation, March 10, 2006, (http://www.abc.net.au/am/content/2006/s1588419.htm).

Peter Taylor, “The Jihadi who Turned ‘Supergrass,’” BBC Online, September 13, 2006, (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/5334594.stm).

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Zachary Abuza, “The Rehabilitation of Jemaah Islamiyah Detainees in South East Asia: A Preliminary Assessment,” in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, ed. Tore Bjørgo and John Horgan (New York: Routledge, 2009), 193–211; See also Sally Neighbour, “Over Their Dead Bodies,” The Australian, November 9, 2007, Features.

Di Martin, “Bali Bomber Now Campaigns to Stop Terrorism,” Australian Broadcasting Corporation News, Sept. 20, 2007, (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/09/20/2039099.htm).

Ibid.

Ibid.

See Bill Guerin, “Another Success for Detachment 88,” Asia Times Online, June 16, 2007, (http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/IF16Ae01.html) for an example of Detachment-88's traditional efforts.

Abuza (see note 52 above).

O'Brien (see note 48 above).

Al-Qaeda: Turning the Terrorists, television broadcast, produced by P. Jenkins (2006; London, UK: British Broadcasting Corporation), (http://video.google.com/videosearch?q=turning+the+terrorists&emb=0&aq=f&ap=f#).

O'Brien (see note 48 above).

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Al-Qaeda: Turning the Terrorists (see note 59 above).

Stewart Bell, “Reason to Live: In Southeast Asia, Fighting Terror Includes Fighting for the Minds of Suicide Bombers,” National Post (Canada), Feb. 25, 2006, News section, National edition.

Abuza (see note 52 above).

Martin Abbugao, “Indonesia Shifts Battles against Extremists,” AFP, March 29, 2007, quoted in Zachary Abuza, “The Rehabilitation of Jemaah Islamiyah Detainees in Southeast Asia: A Preliminary Assessment,” in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective Disengagement, ed. Tore Bjørgo and John Horgan (New York: Routledge, 2009), 193–211.

Bell (see note 63 above).

Simon Kearney, “Islamic Leaders to Help Rehabilitate Terrorists,” The Australian, June 5, 2006, Local section.

Interviews conducted by the first author with Bin Abbas in Jakarta, 2007.

International Crisis Group, “‘Deradicalisation’ and Indonesian prisons,” Asia Report N°142, 2007, (http://www.crisisgroup.org/home/index.cfm?id=5170&1=1).

Ibid.

Abuza (see note 52 above).

Karniol (see note 48 above); Also see O'Brien (see note 48 above).

Andrew K. Woods, “Good Muslim, Good Citizen,” Slate, January 23, 2009, Faith-Based section, (http://www.slate.com/id/2194671).

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Abuza (see note 52 above).

Gregory D. Johnsen, “Terrorists in Rehab,” Worldview Magazine 17, no. 3, (2004a), (http://www.worldviewmagazine.com/issues/article.cfm?id=139&issue=34).

Ibid.

Hamoud Al-Hitar, Dialogue and its Effects on Countering Terrorism: The Yemeni Experience. 1–18. Copy in authors' possession.

James Brandon, “Koranic Duels Ease Terror,” Christian Science Monitor, February 4, 2005, http://www.csmonitor.com/2005/0204/p01s04-wome.html; See also Greg Johnsen, “In Yemen, a Benevolent Alternative to Osama bin Laden,” New America Media, January 20, 2004b, (http://news.ncmonline.com/news/view_article.html?article_id=be013890b8c48cf458e54f95b8708629).

Copy in authors' possession.

Brandon (see note 80 above).

Al-Hitar (see note 79 above); See also Kristin Helberg, “The Yemeni Dialogue Committee: Judge Fights Terror Through Force of Conviction,” Qantara, March 22, 2005, (http://www.qantara.de/webcom/show_article.php/_c-476/_nr-339/i.html?PHPSESSID=4c72d66e722dd3efc7c3ca4eb117566c).

Helberg (see note 83 above).

Johnsen (see Note 80 above).

Note 81, p. 2.

Abdul-Aziz Oudah, “Judge Hamoud al-Hitar, Minister of Islamic Affairs, talks about using dialogue to confront extremists,” Yemen Observer. Retrieved June 9, 2008, from: (http://www.yobserver.com/reports/10014374.html).

Brandon (see note 80 above).

Ibid.

Peter Willems, “Judge Hamoud al-Hitar Praised: The Dialogue Committee is Known Internationally,” Yemen Times, July 18, 2005, (http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=799&p=community&a=2).

Jonathan Schanzer, “Yemen's Al-Qaeda Amnesty,” Frontpage Magazine, November 28, 2003, (http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/Read.aspx?GUID=108E44B8-BC3F-4F85-BABF-8ADBBA5F214E).

Willems (see note 90 above).

Craig Whitlock, “Probe of U.S.S. Cole Bombing Unravels,” Washington Post, May 4, 2008, (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/05/03/AR2008050302047.html).

Brandon (see note 80 above).

Willems (see note 90 above).

Brandon (see note 80 above).

Oudah (see note 87 above).

Johnsen (see Note 82 above).

Brandon (see note 80 above); See also Christopher Boucek, Shazadi Beg, and John Horgan, “Opening up the Jihadi Debate: Yemen's Committee for Dialogue,” in Leaving Terrorism Behind: Individual and Collective and Disengagement, ed. Tore Bjørgo and John Horgan (New York: Routledge, 2009), 181–192.

Brandon (see note 80 above); See also Oudah (see note 87 above).

Elise Labott, Diane Ruggiero, Schams Elwazer, and Ben Wedeman, “US Embassy Staff Asked to Leave Yemen,” CNN.com, (http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/meast/09/19/yemen.embassy.staff/index.html?iref=newssearch).

Terrence Henry, “Get Out of Jihad Free,” The Atlantic, June 2007, (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200706/saudi-jihad).

Christpher Boucek, “Extremist Reeducation and Rehabilitation in Saudi Arabia,” Terrorism Monitor 5, no. 16, (2007): http://www.jamestown.org/terrorism/news/article.php?issue_id=4213.

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Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ibid.

Dell Dailey and Russ Travers, Release of the Country Reports on Terrorism 2007 (Washington, DC: Department of State, 2008): (http://www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/rm/2008/104233).

Boucek (see note 103 above).

Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Carlyle Murphy, “Saudis Use Cash and Counseling to Fight Terrorism,” Christian Science Monitor, August 20, 2008, (http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0821/p01s01-wome.html).

Sonia Verma, “Terrorists ‘Cured’ with Cash, Cars, and Counseling: Controversial Saudi Rehab Program Aims to Reform Jihadists Returning from U.S. Prisons,” The Globe and Mail, September 11, 2008, (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/article708655.ece).

Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Henry (see note 102 above).

Boucek (see note 103 above); See also Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Ibid.

Dailey and Travers (see note 109 above); See also Anthony Horowitz, “What's the Best Way to Stop Terrorism? (a) Political Intervention, (b) Torture, (c) Pampering: The Saudi Government Believes It's Found the Answer, The Sunday Telegraph, July 13, 2008, sec. 7, London edition.

Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]); See also Horowitz (see note 118 above); and Verma (see note 113 above).

Hannah Allam, “To Stanch Spread of Radical Islam, Saudi Arabia Woos Detainees,” McClatchy Newspapers, April 25, 2007, (http://www.cclatchydc.com/staff/hannah_allam/story/16043.html).

Verma (see note 113 above); See also Katherine Zoepf, “Deprogramming Jihadists,” The New York Times Magazine, November 7, 2008, (http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/magazine/09jihadis-t.html).

Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Verma (see note 113 above).

Boucek (see note 104 above [2008b]).

Ibid.

Ibid.

Ibid.

In March of 2009, the first author was part of a delegation to visit the Care center in Riyadh and engage in discussions about these issues with the Saudi authorities.

Horgan (see note 2 above).

Bjorgo and Horgan (see note 1 above).

Ward Edwards and J. Robert Newman, Multiattribute Evaluation (Newbury Park, CA: Sage Publications, 1982).

Available on request from the authors.

Alfred Blumstein, “Planning Models for Analytical Evaluation,” in Handbook of Criminal Justice Evaluation, ed. Malcolm W. Klein and Katherine S. Teilmann (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1980), 237–258.

Gloria A. Grizzle and Ann D. Witte, “Criminal Justice Evaluation Techniques: Methods other than Random Assignment,” in Handbook of Criminal Justice Evaluation, ed. Malcolm W. Klein and Katherine S. Teilmann (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage, 1980), 259–302.

Ibid.

Taylor and Horgan offer a sophisticated model of the development of psychological process in the terrorist that draws on CBT analogies. See Max Taylor and John Horgan, “A Conceptual Framework for Addressing Psychological Processes in the Development of the Terrorist,” Terrorism and Political Violence 18 (2006), 585–601. Also see Max Taylor, “Is Terrorism a Group Phenomenon?,” Aggression and Violent Behavior (in press).

Horgan (see note 2 above).

David Gadd, “The role of recognition in the desistance process: a case analysis of a former far-right activist,” Theoretical Criminology, 10 (2), 2006, 179–202.

Shadd Maruna, “Desistance from crime and explanatory style: a new direction in the psychology of reform,” Journal of Contemporary Criminal Justice, 20 (2), 2004, 184–200.

See Clive R. Hollin, “Treatment Programs for Offenders: Meta-Analysis, ‘What Works,’ and Beyond,” International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 22 (3–4), 1999, 361–372.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

John Horgan

Dr. John Horgan is director of the International Center for the Study of Terrorism, and associate professor of Science, Technology, and Society, and Psychology at Pennsylvania State University. His latest book is Walking Away From Terrorism: Accounts of Disengagement From Radical and Extremist Movements (Routledge, 2009).

Kurt Braddock

Mr. Kurt Braddock is a project manager at the International Center for the Study of Terrorism at Pennsylvania State University, and is conducting PhD research at Penn State's Department of Communication Arts and Sciences on the role of Internet communication in the radicalization process. He is the recipient of a 2009–2010 Pre-Doctoral Terrorism Research Award from the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism (START).