Vehicular Ramming Attacks: Assessing the Effectiveness of Situational Crime Prevention Using Crime Script Analysis

ABSTRACT

The theoretical basis of Situational Crime Prevention (SCP) posits that to reduce crime it is first necessary to understand the interaction between the physical environment and criminal decision making. Situational efforts are commonly applied to specific crimes that are frequent in nature and, due to regular interaction with situational determinants, occur within temporal and spatial clusters. However, SCP is also regularly employed to prevent less frequent crimes, such as terrorist events. The application of SCP has potential to be highly effective for the now common occurrence of ideologically-motivated vehicle ramming attacks (VRAs). However, as SCP measures must be targeted and specific to crime events, it is necessary to first identify common features of the events under scrutiny. One analytical method used to inform the application of SCP through identification of common features of VRAs is crime scripting. This paper develops a crime script of twenty VRAs between 2008 and 2019. The results are analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of existing SCP initiatives, and identify further opportunities to implement SCP to prevent and mitigate against the impact of VRAs.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• crime script
• situational crime prevention

Supplementary material

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Correction Statement

This article has been corrected with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

1. VRAs are defined as the act of intentionally driving a vehicle into pedestrians or other vehicles (Vincent Miller and Keith J. Hayward, “‘I did my bit’: Terrorism, Tarde, and the Vehicle Ramming Attack as an Imitative Event,” The British Journal of Criminology 59, no. 1 (2019): 1–23).

2. Ibid.

3. Simon Perry, Badi Hasisi and Gali Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 41, no. 11 (2018): 899–913; Simon Perry, Badi Hasisi, and Gali Perry, “Lone Terrorists: A Study of Run-Over Attacks in Israel,” European Journal of Criminology 16 (2018): 102–23; Reinier Bergema and Olivia Kearney, “Rise O Muwahhid, Wherever You May Be: An Analysis of the Democratization of the Terrorist Threat in the West,” (The Hague: International Center for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), 2020).

4. Lawrence E. Cohen and Marcus Felson, “Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A routine Activity Approach,” American Sociological Review 44 (1979): 588–608; Ron V. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention: Its Theoretical Basis and Practical Scope,” Crime and Justice 4 (1983): 225–56; Derek B. Cornish & Ron V. Clarke, eds., The Reasoning Criminal: Rational Choice Perspectives on Offending (New York, NY: Springer-Verlag, 1986).

5. Ron V. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” in Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, eds. Richard Wortley and Michael Townsley (Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2017), 286–303.

6. Derek B. Cornish, “The Procedural Analysis of Offending and Its Relevance for Situational Prevention,” in Crime Prevention Studies, ed. Ronald V. Clarke, Vol. 3 (Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press, 1994).

7. Cohen and Felson, “Social Change and Crime Rate Trends.”

8. Graeme Newman and Ron V. Clarke, Rational Choice and Situational Crime Prevention: Theoretical Foundations (London, UK: Routledge, 1997).

9. Paul Ekblom and Nick Tilley, “Going Equipped: Criminology, Situational Crime Prevention and the Resourceful Offender,” The British Journal of Criminology 40, no. 3 (2000): 376–98.

10. Wim Huisman and Judith van Erp, “Opportunities for Environmental Crime: A Test of Situational Crime Prevention Theory,” The British Journal of Criminology 53, no. 6 (2013): 1178–1200.

11. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

12. Joshua D. Freilich and Graeme R. Newman, “Situational Crime Prevention,” in Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice (New York, NY: Oxford University Press, 2017), 1–28.

13. Rob T. Guerette and Kate J. Bowers, “Assessing the Extent of Crime Displacement and Diffusion of Benefits: A Review of Situational Crime Prevention Evaluations,” Criminology 47, no. 4 (2009): 1331–68.

14. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

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16. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

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18. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

19. Tim Hope and Daniel J. I. Murphy, “Problems of Implementing Crime Prevention: The Experience of a Demonstration Project,” The Howard Journal of Crime and Justice 22, no. 1–3 (1983): 38–50.

20. Hervé Borrion, Paul Ekblom, Dalal Alrajeh, Aiduan Li Borrion, Aidan Keane, Daniel Koch, Timothy Mitchener-Nissen, and Sonia Toubaline, “The Problem with Crime Problem-Solving: Towards a Second Generation POP?” The British Journal of Criminology 60, no. 1 (2020): 219–40.

21. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 225–56

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24. The UK CONTEST strategy even notes the necessity for improving current SCP techniques to specifically prevent and mitigate VRA attacks; “including work to develop more deployable permanent and socketed barriers to protect against vehicle-borne attacks, more cost effective and deployable temporary barriers for one-off events protection” (HM Government, CONTEST: The United Kingdom’s Strategy for Countering Terrorism. Crown Copyright 2018):59.

25. Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists.

26. Freilich, Gruenewald, and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

27. Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists.

28. Mandala and Freilich, “Disrupting Terrorist Assassinations Through Situational.”

29. Freilich, Gruenewald, and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

30. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

31. Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists.

32. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

33. Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists.

34. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303; Clarke and Newman, Outsmarting the Terrorists. A full overview of the challenge of adaptation is beyond the scope of this paper, however, see Ekblom and Tilley (2000), and Guerette and Bowers (2009) for an in-depth discussion.

35. Ekblom and Tilley, “Going Equipped.”

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37. Freilich, Gruenewald and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

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39. Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Lone Terrorists.”

40. Thomas Fisher, Designing Our Way to a Better World (Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press, 2016)

41. Paul Gill, “Tactical Innovation and the Provisional Irish Republican Army,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 40, no. 7, (2017): 573–85.

42. Ignacio Sánchez-Cuenca, “The Dynamics of Nationalist Terrorism: ETA and the IRA,” Terrorism and Political Violence 19, no. 3 (2007): 289–306.

43. Stuart A. Wright, Patriots, Politics, and the Oklahoma City Bombing (New York, NY: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

44. Bart Schuurmann, Edwin Bakker, Paul Gill, Noémie Bouhana, “Lone Actor Terrorist Attack Planning and Preparation: A Data‐Driven Analysis,” Journal of Forensic Sciences 63, no. 4, (2018): 1191–1200.

45. Ibid.

46. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”

47. Derek B. Cornish, “The Procedural Analysis of Offending and Its Relevance for Situational Prevention,” in Crime Prevention Studies, ed. Ronald V. Clarke, Vol. 3 (Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press, 1994); Benoit Leclerc, “New Developments in Script Analysis for Situational Crime Prevention,” in Cognition and Crime: Offender Decision Making and Script Analyses, eds. Benoit Leclerc and Richard Wortley (Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2014), 221–36.

48. Eric Beauregard and Benoit Leclerc, “An Application of the Rational Choice Approach to the Offending Process of Sex Offenders: A Closer Look at the Decision-Making,” Sex Abuse no. 19 (2007): 115–33.

49. Derek B. Cornish, “The Procedural Analysis of Offending and Its Relevance for Situational Prevention. in Crime Prevention Studies, ed. Ronald V. Clarke, Vol. 3 (Monsey, NY: Criminal Justice Press, 1994), 151–96.

50. Hashem Dehghanniri and Hervé Borrion, “Crime Scripting: A Systematic Review,” European Journal of Criminology (2019): 1–22

51. Leclerc, “New Developments in Script Analysis”; Dehghanniri and Borrion, “Crime Scripting.”

52. Dehghanniri and Borrion, “Crime Scripting.”

53. Sunniva Meyer, “Reducing Harm from Explosive Attacks Against Railways,” Security Journal 25, (2012): 309–25; Jasper de Bie, Christianne de Poot and Joanne van der Leun, “Shifting modus operandi of Jihadist foreign fighters from the Netherlands between 2000 and 2013: A Crime Script Analysis,” Terrorism and Political Violence 27, no. 3 (2015): 416–40; Minwoo Yun and Mitchel Roth, “Terrorist Hostage-Taking and Kidnapping: Using Script Theory to Predict The Fate of a Hostage,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 31, no. 8 (2008): 736–48; Hopkins and Chivers, “Understanding and Preventing Hit-and-Run Driving: A Crime Script Analysis,” Crime Prevention and Community Safety 20, no.1 (2018): 16–29; Jeffery R. Osborne and Joel A. Capellan, “Examining Active Shooter Events through the Rational Choice Perspective and Crime Script Analysis,” Security Journal 30, no. 3 (2017): 880–902; John Horgan, Paul Gill, Noémie Bouhana, James Silver and Emily Corner, Across the Universe? A Comparative Analysis of Violent Radicalization Across Three Offender Types with Implications for Criminal Justice Training and Education (Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice, 2016).

54. Brayley, Cockbain and Laycock, Policing.

55. Freilich, Gruenewald, and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

56. Ibid.

57. Gary LaFree and Laura Dugan, “Introducing the Global Terrorism Database,” Terrorism and Political Violence, 19, no 2, (2007): 181–204.

58. The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) emphasized the convenience and destructive capability of vehicles (Luminita L. Anica, “Vehicle-Ramming Attack- A New Modus Operandi of Terrorists. In International Scientific Conference ‘Strategies XXI’ Bucharest: Carol I National Defense University, (2018); 67–79), accounting for the worldwide surge of VRAs occurring between 2008 and 2019 (Freilich, Gruenewald & Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”).

59. Miller and Hayward, “I Did My Bit.’”

60. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”; Freilich, Gruenewald & Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

61. Graham R. Gibbs, “Thematic Coding and Categorizing,” in Qualitative Research Kit: Analyzing Qualitative Data. (London; England: SAGE, 2007): 38–55.

62. Patricia Erickson and Steven Erickson, Crime, Punishment, and Mental Illness: Law and the Behavioral Sciences in Conflict (Piscataway, NJ: Rutgers University Press, 2008).

63. Thomas Gutheil and Robert Simon, “Avoiding Bias in Expert Testimony,” Psychiatric Annals, 34, no. 4 (2004): 260–70; Daniel Murrie, Marcus Boccaccini, Lucy Guarnera, and Katrina Rufino. “Are Forensic Experts Biased by the Side that Retained Them?” Psychological Science 20, no. 10 (2013): 1–9.

64. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”; Freilich, Gruenewald, and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

65. It is widely accepted that the four pillars of terrorist opportunity underpin the actions of terrorists when planning and carrying out a terrorist attack. Examining the four pillars assists prevention through allowing for a more comprehensive understanding of the crime-specific characteristics and decision-making processes of a terrorist. Therefore, allocating each of the scripted variables in accordance with the four pillars provides a greater understanding of where and how each variable relates to the opportunity structure of a VRA, and how SCP initiatives may seek to effectively target and disrupt the characteristics of the four pillars that underpin VRAs.

66. Brayley, Cockbain, and Laycock, Policing.

67. John Horgan, The Psychology of Terrorism, 2nd ed. (Oxon, England: Routledge, 2014); Horgan, Gill, Bouhana, Silver and Corner, National Institute of Justice. Utilized four distinct phases in their crime script development; decision and search activity, preparation, event execution, and post-event activity.

68. Paul Gill, Zoe Marchment, Emily Corner, and Noémie Bouhana, “Terrorist Decision Making in the Context of Risk, Attack Planning, and Attack Commission,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 43, no. 2 (2020): 145–60.

69. Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?” 899

70. Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Lone Terrorists.”

71. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?; Richard Wortley, “Situational Precipitators Of Crime,” In Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, eds. Richard Wortley and Michael Townsley (Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge, 2017), 62–86.

72. Laura Payton, “Martin Couture-Rouleau Case Underscores Passport Seizure Dilemma,” CBC News—Politics (October 21, 2014).

73. Genevieve Beauchemin and Laurie Graham, “Suspect in Quebec Attack on Soldiers was Arrested in July: RCMP,” CTV News, October 21, 2014; Intelligence Assessments Branch, “Mobilization to Violence (Terrorism) Research: Key Findings.” Canadian Security Intelligence Service, 2018.

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75. Beauchemin and Graham, CTV News.

76. Geason and Wilson, Crime Prevention Series.

77. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

78. Burn, Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Communication.

79. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”

80. Ibid.

81. Artur Jasinski, “Protecting Public Spaces Against Vehicular Terrorist Attacks,” Architecture and Urban Planning no. 2 (2018): 45–56.

82. Shariati and Guerette, Preventing Crime and Violence.

83. Jasinski, “Protecting Public Spaces Against Vehicular.”

84. Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”

85. Freilich, Gruenewald and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

86. Simon Perry, Badi Hasisi and Gali Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist? A Study of Vehicle-Borne Attackers in Israel and the West Bank,” Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, 41, no.11, (2018): 899–913.

87. United States Department of Homeland Security, “Terrorist Use of VR Tactics” (Roll Call Release, Federal Bureau of Intelligence, 2010) 1–3.

88. Freilich, Gruenewald and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

89. London Bridge Inquests. Transcript day 36- 28 June 2019. H.M Coroner, Hearing Transcripts.

90. Jasinski, “Protecting Public Spaces Against Vehicular.”; Perry, Hasisi and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”

91. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

92. Miller and Hayward, “I Did My Bit.’”

93. Freilich, Gruenewald and Mandala, “Situational Crime Prevention and Terrorism.”

94. Fisher, Designing Our Way to a Better World.

95. Jon Coaffee, “Protecting Vulnerable Cities: The UK’s Resilience Response to Defending Everyday Urban Infrastructure.” International Affairs 86, no.4, (2010): 939–54.

96. Clarke, Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis, 286–303; Randall I Atlas (ed.) 21st Century Security and CPTED: Designing for Critical Infrastructure Protection and Crime Prevention, 2nd ed. (Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press, 2013).

97. Jasinski, “Protecting Public Spaces Against Vehicular.”

98. Coaffee, “Protecting Vulnerable Cities”; Jasinski, “Protecting Public Spaces Against Vehicular.”

99. Peter Chambers and Tom Andrews, “Never Mind the Bollards: The Politics of Policing Car Attacks Through the Securitisation of Crowded Urban Places,” Environment and Planning D: Society and Space 37, no. 6, (2019): 1–20.

100. Brian M. Jenkins and Bruce R. Butterworth, “An Analysis of Vehicle Ramming as a Terrorist Tactic,” Security Perspective (San Jose State University, CA: Mineta Transportation Institute, 2018).

101. However, these situational obstructions did not stop three of the four offenders who zigzagged from adapting and using a knife to harm pedestrians, and displace their violence. Reiterating the need for multidisciplinary implementation of SCP initiatives.

102. This increased vulnerability ultimately resulted in all zigzagging offenders being shot and killed by law-enforcement.

103. Morgan Brinlee, “14 mistakes Charlottesville Police Made During the White Nationalist Rally, According to a New Report,” Bustle (December 3, 2017).

104. Nick Wilson, “Deadly Crashes Inspire $1.3 Million Project for SLO Farmers Market Street Safety,” The Tribune (February 26, 2018)

105. Nick Wilson, The Tribune.

106. Jacinta Carroll and Micah Batt, “Westminster Attack, London, 22 March 2017,” (CT Quick Look June 2017, Australian Strategic Policy Institute, 2017).

107. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

108. Coaffee, International Affairs.

109. Fisher, Designing Our Way to a Better World.

110. Clarke, “Situational Crime Prevention,” 286–303.

111. Alex Ulam, “Security with Street Smarts,” Landscape Architecture Magazine 96, no.1, (2006): 70, 72–77.

112. Ibid.

113. Gill, Horgan, Hunter, and Cushenbery, “Malevolent Creativity in Terrorist Organizations.”

114. Miller and Hayward, “I Did My Bit.’”

115. Ibid.

116. Ibid.

117. Gill, Horgan, Hunter, and Cushenbery, “Malevolent Creativity in Terrorist Organizations.”

118. Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”

119. David Romyn, and Mark Kebbell, “Terrorists’ Planning Of Attacks: A Simulated ‘Red-Team’ Investigation Into Decision-Making,” Psychology, Crime & Law, 20, no. 5 (2014): 480–96.

120. Paul Gill, Emily Corner, Amy McKee, Paul Hitchen, and Paul Betley, “What Do Closed Source Data Tell us About Lone Actor Terrorist Behavior? A Research Note,” Terrorism and Political Violence.

121. Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Who is the Lone Terrorist?”; Perry, Hasisi, and Perry, “Lone Terrorists.”

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Alex Williams

Alexandra Williams is a final year Bachelor’s degree student, studying Criminology with a National Security Studies specialisation at the Australian National University. Alex has previously completed an internship under Dr. Emily Corner where she conducted research into the prevention of vehicle ramming attacks as a form of terrorism. Alex has experience in Law and Policy and aims to pursue a career in counterterrorism.

Emily Corner

Dr. Emily Corner is a Lecturer in criminology at the Centre for Social Research and Methods at the Australian National University. She has worked on research projects funded by the Department of Home Affairs, Defence Science and Technology Laboratory, the European Union, the National Institute of Justice, and the Department of Defence. Dr. Corner’s doctoral research focused on examining mental disorders and terrorist behaviour, and won the Terrorism Research Initiative’s Thesis award in 2016. Her published works focus on decision making and mental health in lone and group-based terrorism, radicalisation, mass murderers, and fixated individuals.

Helen Taylor

Dr. Helen Taylor is a senior research officer at the Centre for Social Research and Methods at the Australian National University and has expertise in political science, terrorism studies, and mixed methods. She has worked on several externally funded research grants at the ANU, including a Commonwealth funded project testing the reliability, validity, and equity of published terrorist risk assessment tools. She previously held senior policy positions within the Australian Department of Defence. Dr. Taylor’s doctoral research examined state-centred and civil society-led peacebuilding initiatives in Northern Ireland.