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Abstract
Although not unexpected, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was still largely a shock to the West. It was the first time since the Second World War that the Soviets had directly intervened in a country outside the Warsaw Pact. Despite the intervention eventually being seen as Moscow's ‘Vietnam’ the West was initially unsure about what the invasion meant for stability in the region or the future conduct of East–West relations. In response to the crisis the UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) proposed that Afghanistan revert to a neutral and non-aligned status in an attempt to create the basis for a viable political settlement, one that would allow the Soviet Union to withdraw troops without losing face. It launched the proposal in early 1980, lobbying other countries to support and champion the idea, culminating in a visit to Moscow by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Carrington, in July 1981. In this early phase of Soviet intervention the British proposals were premature but not without merit. They anticipated the strategy the Soviets would eventually adopt in their attempt to achieve an orderly withdrawal.
Notes
The views expressed here are those of the author alone, and do not represent those of any government department.
1 The National Archives (TNA): FCO 37/2127: Afghanistan Annual Review for 1978 by KR Crook, 14 January 1979.
2 See also speeches of 26 July 1975, < http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/102750> and 31 July 1976, < http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/103086>.
3 Interview with Sir Rodric Braithwaite (former head of Planning Staff) in 1998 given to the British Diplomatic Oral History Project, Churchill Archives Centre, Cambridge (BDOHP 30). The 1976 Planning Staff paper can be found in TNA: FCO 33/3839.
4 TNA: FCO 37/2132: minute by Christopher Mallaby, 8 November 1979.
5 TNA: FCO 37/2270: ‘Afghanistan: neutrality’ by the Research Department, February 1980.
6 TNA: FCO 37/2270: ‘Afghanistan: neutrality’ by the Research Department, February 1980
7 TNA: FCO 37/2272: ‘A neutral Afghanistan’ by G Beel (Research Department), 28 February 1980.
8 TNA: FCO 37/2269: Sir Iain Sinclair (Legal Adviser) to Lord N Gordon Lennox, 21 February 1980.
9 TNA: FCO 37/2269: Brief by SAD for a meeting of the European Council, 15 February 1980.
10 TNA: FCO 37/2269: FCO Guidance tel no 20 of 22 February 1980.
11 TNA: FCO 37/2269: Moscow tel nos 161 and 162 of 23 February 1980.
12 TNA: FCO 28/4004: minute by David Broucher, 26 February 1980.
13 TNA: FCO 37/2269: Christopher Mallaby to Julian Bullard, 20 February 1980.
14 TNA: FCO 37/2270: Paul Lever to PS/Donald Maitland, 27 February 1980.
15 TNA: FCO 37/2271: FCO tel no 158 to Moscow of 28 February 1980 and Moscow tel no 180 of 3 March 1980.
16 TNA: FCO 37/2271: FCO tel no 127 to Paris of 4 March 1980.
17 TNA: FCO 37/2271: FCO tel no 175 to Moscow of 7 March 1980.
18 However, at this stage officials did not think the economic cost of intervention would be too onerous for the Soviets. Nor did they think military considerations would dictate withdrawal. Although insurgent activity would continue, Soviet troops would have little difficulty controlling the roads and towns, and if they kept ‘search and destroy’ operations to a minimum then casualties were thought likely to be trivial. TNA: FCO 37/2269. ‘Afghanistan: Treaty of Neutrality’, 15 February 1980.
19 A Loja Jirga was used in 1987 and 2003 to ratify new constitutions for Afghanistan but Andrew Barfield suggests that by this point they had become a good example of an ‘invented tradition’ (see Barfield Citation2010, 294–299).
20 TNA: FCO 37/2272: ‘Afghanistan/elections’ by JE Hoare (Research Department), 22 February 1980, and ‘A neutral and non-aligned Afghanistan’ by William White (SAD), 6 March 1980.
21 TNA: FCO 37/2273: Christopher Mallaby to Sir Donald Maitland, 18 March 1980.
22 TNA: FCO 37/2272: revised version of ‘A neutral and non-aligned Afghanistan’ by William White, 18 March 1980.
23 TNA: FCO 37/2272: John Fretwell (Washington) to Ewen Fergusson, 12 March 1980.
24 TNA: FCO 37/2270: Christopher Mallaby to William White, 27 February 1980.
25 TNA: FCO 37/2271: Giles Fitzherbert (EC Department) to Mallaby, 29 February 1980.
26 TNA: FCO 37/2272: Washington tel nos 1145 and 1146 of 19 March 1980.
27 TNA: FCO 37/2274: FCO tel no 619 to Washington of 29 March 1980.
28 TNA: FCO 37/2271: FCO tel no 158 to Moscow of 28 February (sent 29 February) 1980.
29 TNA: FCO 37/2274: note entitled ‘Afghanistan: work in hand’ by SAD, 27 March 1980.
30 TNA: FCO 37/2274: record of the discussion held between Mr Chatty and the Lord Privy Seal on 3 April 1980.
31 TNA: FCO 37/2276: Doha tel no 73 of 6 May 1980.
32 TNA: FCO 37/2412: ‘Afghanistan – discussion points’, c March 1981.
33 TNA: FCO 37/2412: minutes by Sir John Graham, 7 January 1981, and John Coles, 16 January 1981.
34 TNA: FCO 37/2584: FCO tel no 85 to Islamabad of 30 January 1981.
35 TNA: FCO 37/ 2584: minutes by John Macgregor, 13 February 1981, and Roderic Lyne, 16 February 1981.
36 TNA: FCO 37/2415: FCO tel no 789 to Washington of 26 May 1981.
37 TNA: FCO 37/2415: minute by Sir John Graham, 2 June 1981, and submission by John Coles, 2 June 1981; TNA: FCO 37/2416: Alexander Haig to Lord Carrington, 12 June 1981.
38 TNA: FCO 37/2416: letter from Michael Alexander to Roderic Lyne, 10 June 1981.
39 TNA: FCO 37/2418: Alexander Haig to Lord Carrington, 15 July 1981.
40 TNA: FCO 37/2418: UK Rep Brussels tel no 2659 of 13 July 1981.
41 TNA: FCO 37/2418: minute by Nigel Broomfield (Head of EESD), 23 July 1981.
42 Phrase used by Sir John Coles (former head of SAD) in an interview given in 1999 to the British Diplomatic Oral History Project, Churchill Archives Centre, Cambridge (BDOHP 46).
43 TNA: FCO 37/2271: Moscow tel no 196 of 10 March 1980.