Explaining the behaviour of small states: an analysis of Jordan's nuclear energy policy^a

Abstract

Conventional analyses claim that small states bandwagon with leading international powers. The dominant view is that small states' vulnerabilities and limited power hinder their ability to pursue policy goals. This study critiques this position by investigating why and how Jordan continues to pursue a nuclear energy programme despite objections from the United States—its principal ally. By using theories of small states, this study analyses discursive practices in Jordanian policymaking. This approach is used to describe Jordan's nuclear energy policy and posit a logic of the effects that energy insecurity has on the government's perception of Jordan as a ‘small state’. I use this to create hypotheses concerning the conditions under which small states may not simply bandwagon with key international allies, but may have more freedom to pursue their goals than traditional analyses predict. Explanations that assume small states always have limited freedom to pursue policy goals without the backing of key allies are not supported by the evidence considered here.

Notes

¹ Here, global/systemic-level processes (related to nuclear technology proliferation and its management) are considered alongside regional-level processes (of, for example, stability/instability in hydrocarbon producers like Iraq and Egypt). This study thus takes account of theoretical assumptions found in sub-system dominance approaches (see Kaplan 1957) to an extent.

² It is acknowledged here that there is a difference between the two types of analyses, yet neither should necessarily be seen as more valuable than the other in terms of their intellectual contribution to the discipline. The key limitation with this type of study is that policy changes can occur in response to changes in international relations. However, this study considers the importance of energy insecurity experienced by Jordan as reflected in Jordanian decision-making and state discourse, which has emerged out of the experience of relying on external sources for energy. In this way, examining policy as opposed to policy outcome offers insight into the interests, capabilities and decision-making processes that can provide us with conclusions about state behaviour—something that analysing policy outcomes often cannot adequately achieve. For example, even if a favourable change in Jordanian imports of energy were to arise this would not provide the country with energy security nor would it reverse the government's experiences of previous favourable cases—such as oil from Iraq and gas from Egypt as discussed below—that did not provide Jordan with energy security.

³ Transcripts and videos of interviews conducted with Jordanian and international media; transcripts of the King's speeches given to the Jordanian Parliament; the King's letters of designation to prime ministers and other ministers; the King's op-eds in international media; and press releases issued by the Hashemite Royal Court. All of this material has been accessed via the King's personal website (http://www.kingabdullah.jo/). Personal correspondence with a representative of the Royal Hashemite Court is also used here.

⁴ The Ministry's Annual Reports and Master Strategy for the Energy Sector 2007–2020.

⁵ Reports to the government and private sector actors, along with personal correspondence with the JAEC Chairman.

⁶ This agreement and the selection of AtomStroyExport demonstrates the multilateral approach adopted by the Jordanian government. US-based corporations were not included in the bidding process, as the absence of a ‘123’ agreement (see note 9 for an explanation of ‘123’ agreements) prohibits their involvement. Given the nature of the selection process (and that actors from Canada, France and Japan also submitted bids), the Jordanian selection of AtomStroyExport should be seen not simply as an attempt to balance against the US but as an extension of the urgency placed by the Jordanian government on achieving energy security (in short, Jordanian multilateralism in the pursuit of nuclear energy technologies and capabilities is founded on the government's belief that domestic energy production is needed as soon as possible and that concerns for costs and over-reliance on any one actor (state or non-state) are important.

⁷ Khaled Touqan, interview conducted in Amman, Jordan, 5 March 2012.

⁸ So named after Section 123 of the United States Atomic Energy Act of 1954 titled ‘Cooperation with Other Nations’ which establishes the conditions for any nuclear cooperation between the US and other countries.

⁹ Touqan, interview.

¹⁰ Touqan, interview.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Imad El-Anis

Imad El-Anis is a senior lecturer in IR at Nottingham Trent University, United Kingdom. He is the author of several books including Jordan and the United States: the political economy of trade and economic reform in the Middle East (London: IB Tauris, 2011). Email: [email protected]