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Abstract
This article seeks to examine the foreign policy behaviour of weak states in regions marked by politically turbulent geostrategic environments. An analysis of Afghanistan's foreign policy behaviour vis-à-vis Pakistan and India lends focus to this aim. India–Pakistan rivalry has gained traction as a key factor in determining Afghanistan's stability in the wake of the drawdown of Coalition forces. Missing from this debate, however, is consideration of Afghanistan's agency as a weak state with an independent set of policy preferences. Based on primary interviews with a diverse set of Afghan political actors the article outlines two competing policy advocacies: Pakistan friendly and Pakistan averse. The article argues that these advocacies are key to understanding Afghanistan's India–Pakistan dilemma. Departing from the ethnic lens used to explain Afghan politics and its regional linkages, this article shows that Kabul's relations with Islamabad determine its approach towards New Delhi regardless of ethnic rivalries. Understanding domestic Afghan narratives in this regional context is therefore imperative to adequately assess South Asia's prospective security calculus.
Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
Notes
1 This article was authored as part of the UK–India Education and Research Initiative—Trilateral Research in Partnership (UKIERI-TRIP) project that was awarded to the Defence Studies Department, King's College London (KCL). I would like to thank UKIERI, and the King's Graduate School for funding my fieldwork in India and Afghanistan. The ‘India–Pakistan–Afghanistan Trilateral Relations: Beyond 2001’ workshop held at KCL in August 2014, and the feedback therein, added immense value to this paper. My sincere thanks to the editors and the three anonymous reviewers at the Cambridge Review of International Affairs and to Harsh Pant, Theo Farrell, Mark Erbel, Martin Bayly, David Scott, Khalid Nadiri, Nina Kaysser and Kaustav Chakrabarty for providing very helpful comments. A special thanks goes to all the interviewees who very kindly gave the time and effort to share ideas and information. All errors and omissions are the sole responsibility of the author.
2 ‘Pakistan, Afghanistan to initiate joint commission on border management’, Express Tribune, 10 February 2014, < http://tribune.com.pk/story/669910/pakistan-afghanistan-to-initiate-joint-commission-on-border-management/>.
3 Though vastly different in many ways, the terms ‘weak’ and ‘small’ are used interchangeably in this paper. Given the nature of Afghanistan's state structure since 2001, it can be categorised as both weak and small.
4 Interview with Mohammad Halim Fidai, former governor of Wardak Province, Kabul, 27 April 2013.
5 Article V, Treaty of Rawalpindi, 8 August 1919.
6 Interview with Vikram Sood, former chief of R&AW, India's external intelligence agency, New Delhi, 20 March 2013. Plus: interview with ‘A’, a top Indian intelligence officer involved in IC814 negotiations.
7 Interview with Hakim Mujahid, former Taliban delegate to the UN, Kabul, 6 May 2013.
8 Interview with Syed Akbar Agha, senior Taliban official, Kabul, 30 April 2013.
9 Suo Moto statement by India's External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh in both Houses of Parliament on the hijacking of Indian Airlines Flight IC814, 28 February 2000.
10 Loya Jirga is a traditional Afghan grand assembly or grand council, as referred to in the Pashto language.
11 The United Front included the Sunni Tajik-dominated Jamiat-e-Islami of Massoud and Rabbani, the Uzbek-dominated Junbish-e-Milli of Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Pashtun-dominated Eastern Shura of Abdul Qadir, the Hazara-dominated Hezb-e-Wahdat of Mohammad Mohaqiq and Karim Khalili and the Shia Tajik- and Hazara-dominated Harakat-e-Islami of Sayed Hussain Anwari.
12 ‘India and Afghanistan: a development partnership’, Ministry of External Affairs of India, < http://mea.gov.in/Uploads/PublicationDocs/176_india-and-afghanistan-a-development-partnership.pdf>.
13 Hakim Mujahid, interview, 2013.
14 Sood, interview, 2013.
15 Interview with Ahmad Wali Massoud, Kabul, 29 April 2013.
16 Interviews in Kabul: presidential candidate Abdullah Abdullah, 2 May 2013; Hizb-e-Wahdat leader Mohammad Mohaqiq, 3 May 2013; former political aide of Massoud ‘B’, 9 April 2013; journalist Fahim Dashty [Tajik camp], 8 April 2013; journalist Omar Sharifi [Tajik camp], 2 May 2013, former deputy foreign minister Jawed Ludin, 21 April 2013; Deputy Foreign Minister Ershad Ahmadi, 7 April 2013. In Herat: Governor Daud Saba, 17 April 2013.
17 Interview in Kabul: Afghan Ambassador to Pakistan Janan Musazai, 7 April 2013; journalist Sanjar Sohail, 24 April 2013; Syed Akbar Agha from the Taliban, 30 April 2013; Hakim Mujahid from the Taliban, 06 May 2013; and Bacha Khan Foundation's Sanaullah Tasal, 19 April 2013.
18 Interview with Waheed Omar, former spokesperson for the President of Afghanistan, Kabul, 11 April 2013.
19 ‘India and Afghanistan’.
20 Interview with Ahmad Wali Massoud, Tajik politician, Kabul, 29 April 2013.
21 Abdullah, interview, 2013.
22 Abdullah, interview, 2013.
23 Abdullah, interview, 2013.
24 Sharifi, interview, 2013.
25 Afghanistan presidential election results 2004, < http://www.iec.org.af/public_html/Election%20Results%20Website/english/english.htm>
26 Eide's statement remains contested, as many observers believe that the 2004 elections were the least tainted of all three elections prior to 2014.
27 ‘Indian commitment to Afghanistan touches USD 2 billion: PM’, Hindustan Times, 13 May 2011, < http://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/Afghanistan/Indian-commitment-to-Afghanistan-touches-USD-2-billion-PM/Article1-697007.aspx>.
28 ‘Top al Qaeda operative caught in Pakistan’, 2 March 2003, CNN, < http://edition.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/south/03/01/pakistan.arrests/index.html?_s = PM:asiapcf>.
29 ‘Jaish-e-Mohammad’, National Counterterrorism Center, < http://www.nctc.gov/site/groups/jem.html>.
30 ‘Afghanistan: civilians bear cost of escalating insurgent attacks’, Human Rights Watch, < www.hrw.org/en/news/2007/04/15/afghanistan-civilians-bear-cost-escalating-insurgent-attacks>.
31 This includes the Quetta Shura, the Peshawar Shura, the Haqqani Network and the Hizb-e-Islami (Gulbuddin).
32 In retrospect, the proposed reconciliation process failed and these talks had little practical influence.
33 Interview with ‘C’, a senior Western official posted in Afghanistan.
34 ‘Indian Embassy attack in Kabul: details revealed in Wikileaks’, NDTV, 27 July 2010, < www.ndtv.com/article/world/indian-embassy-attack-in-kabul-details-revealed-in-wikileaks-39798>.
35 ‘9 Indians among 17 dead as Taliban bombers attack Kabul’, Times of India, 26 February 2010, < http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2010-02-26/south-asia/28129796_1_afghan-government-officials-kabul/Indian-doctors>.
36 ‘India: an outside presence Afghans actually welcome’, RT, 22 January 2011, < http://rt.com/news/india-afghans-afghanistan-projects/>.
37 The Afghanistan 1400 in Kabul and the Professional Shura in Herat are two such movements representing civil society voices in Afghanistan.
38 Charity and social organizations like the Massoud Foundation, run by Ahmad Wali Massoud, and the Dostum Foundation, run by Abdul Rashid Dostum, are used to soften the image of former warlords. On details of the children of Afghan warlords see, Mashal (Citation2012).
39 Saba, interview, 2013, and interview with Haji Jaweed Zeyaratjahi, senior reporter, Tolo TV, Herat, 15 April 2013. It must be noted here that Ismael Khan, like many other ‘warlords’, is not viewed as such by many people in his region of influence. Khan, for instance, despite being at odds with Saba, played a critical role in making Herat a prosperous city in the early 2000s (though this was achieved, allegedly, by diverting customs revenue to Herat rather than sending it to Kabul).
40 Tasal, interview, 2013.
41 Saba, interview, 2013.
42 This, however, does not hold true in the current political setup where former warlords hold important government offices. Also, they persuaded parliament to vote them full amnesty in 2007. See < http://www.hrw.org/news/2010/03/10/afghanistan-repeal-amnesty-law>.
43 Fidai, interview, 2013.
44 ‘Transcript of the lecture by H.E. Hamid Karzai, President of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan at the Observer Research Foundation’, 7 October 2011, < president.gov.af/en/news/3884>.
45 ‘Pakistan sees Afghanistan's Karzai as obstacle to peace with Taliban’, Dawn, 25 March 2013, < beta.dawn.com/news/797836/pakistan-sees-afghanistans-karzai-as-obstacle-to-peace-with-taliban>.
46 ‘B’, interview, 2013.
47 Abdullah, interview, 2013.
48 Sab,a interview, 2013.
49 Interview with ‘D’, former minister and senior advisor to Hamid Karzai on foreign policy, Kabul, 20 April 2013.
50 Akbar Agha, interview, 2013.
51 Ludin, interview, 2013.
52 Ludin, interview, 2013.
53 Ludin, interview, 2013.
54 ‘Istanbul Process: a new agenda for regional cooperation’, 14 June 2012, < heartofasiaministerial-mfa.gov.af>.
55 ‘B’, interview, 2013.
56 Wali Massoud, interview, 2013.
57 Wali Massoud was particularly unhappy over India's lack of support for the Massoud Foundation.
58 Interview with Haneef Atmar, Kabul, National Security Advisor of Afghanistan, 27 April 2013.
59 UNAMA news articles, 6 May 2013, < http://unama.unmissions.org/Default.aspx?ctl = Details&tabid = 12329&mid = 15870&ItemID = 36778>.
60 Akbar Agha, interview, 2013.
61 ‘Afghan President visits Pakistan to reset troubled ties’, BBC News, 14 November 2014, < http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-30049115>.
Additional information
Notes on contributors
Avinash Paliwal
Avinash Paliwal is a teaching associate at the Defence Studies Department, King's College London. His current research concerns South Asian strategic affairs, Indian foreign policy, foreign policy analysis and Afghanistan. His doctoral thesis examines shifts in India's Afghanistan policy after the Cold War. He was previously a visiting fellow at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), New Delhi. Email: [email protected]