Trade, non-state actors and conflict: evidence from Greece and Turkey

Abstract

To what extent does growing trade lessen the probability of inter-state conflict? This paper addresses this question by using the curiously under-studied dyadic relationship between Greece and Turkey. Measuring trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) volumes as well as tourism flows and by use of elite interviews with key actors from both countries, we find that economic relations have become stronger and more diverse over time, non-state actors now featuring prominently in deepening interaction. Such developments, however, fail to translate into conflict resolution at the political level. To account for these findings, we use a New Liberal approach, arguing that this helps us explain both enhanced plurality in bilateral economic exchange and the incompatibility of the two countries' respective conceptions regarding legitimate national borders.

Notes

1 We deliberately excluded the energy field from our analysis as this mostly concerns hard security issues as well as geopolitics. It also involves a variety of international actors which are beyond the scope of this study.

2 IMF Data

3 Interview 4 and 9

4 Interview 8

5 See <https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_e.htm>, accessed 4 May 2016

6 In 2012 Eurobank EFG left the Turkish market by selling Eurobank Tekfen to Burgan Bank of Kuwait. See http://www.tekfen.com.tr/haber_arsivi.asp?p=2013&h=2, accessed 2 April 2016. Similarly in 2016, NGB agreed with the Qatar National Bank to sell Finansbank. See <http://www.ekathimerini.com/205182/article/ekathimerini/business/nbg-approves-finansbank-sale > accessed 2 April 2016.

7 Available at <http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do;jsessionid=FJ21YmxFKxvnxTK0lKs9LJMbk5ChbpgZKRLvxcNMpQtg18mfJLzh!-911170988>, 28 March 2018

8 D-Marin Group Brochure (personal communication, 7 October 2015)

9 Interview 4

10 Interview 2

11 Interview 5

12 Interview 10

13 Interview 7

14 Interview 5

15 Green passports are given to state officials and employees as well as former ministers and parliament members.

16 Interview 7

17 Interview 7

18 See İZTO Midilli İş ve İnceleme Gezisi, retrieved from http://www.izto.org.tr/portals/0/pusuladergisi/2013/haziran/midilliisgezi.pdf

19 See <http://www.mfa.gov.tr/high-level-cooperation-council-meeting-between-turkey-and-greece.en.mfa>

20 Interview 2

21 Interview 6

22 Interview 10