Fragile interdependence: the case of Russia-EU relations

Abstract

This article situates the interdependence debate in IR theories within contemporary world politics and reconsiders the concept of complex interdependence against current deglobalising dynamics. A notion of fragile interdependence is developed to explore the reversibility of interdependent relationships, an issue which has become increasingly important. Russia-EU relations, during and in the aftermath of the Ukraine crisis, serve as the core case study to illustrate the implications of the theoretical debate. The focus is placed on two dimensions of their interdependent relationship: (non-energy) trade and gas. Although both dimensions have been reversed during this geopolitical crisis, there has been a contrasting pattern. In a comparative manner, the case study illustrates the ramifications of the theoretical debate, and, more importantly, the extent to which complex or fragile interdependence is relevant. This article argues that fragile interdependence would better capture the reversals, although, at the same time, complex interdependence may still be relevant to account for the rebound in resilient interdependent relationships.

Disclosure statement

The author declares that there is no conflict of interest.

Acknowledgments

I am grateful to Prof. Roy Allison, who supervised my master thesis at the University of Oxford. This article has been developed on the basis of my master thesis. Many thanks go to Prof. Elena Korosteleva, who is my primary supervisor at Kent University. Special thanks go to Prof. Richard Sakwa, who offered great insights and huge encouragement. I highly appreciate the helpful comments from five anonymous reviewers and the assigned editor of CRIA.

Notes

1 The author acknowledges that after Brexit the EU has twenty seven members, but during the period covered by this case study the UK was still a member of the EU.

2 These remarks are made based on the data on Russian FDI net flows during the period Jan 2014—Jan 2017, available at <https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/foreign-direct-investment>, accessed 21 Jan 2020.

3 These remarks are made based on the data on Russia capital flows during the period Jan 2014—Jan 2017, available at <https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/capital-flows>, accessed 21 Jan 2020.

4 Arguably it holds the same for Russia, as the same source points out that ‘Russia exported 71% of its gas to Europe’.

5 Another example would be the suspension of the South Stream project.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Huawei Zheng

Huawei Zheng is a GCRF-funded PhD student at the University of Kent. He holds an MSc obtained from St Antony’s College, University of Oxford.