The unpredictability factor: Nixon, Trump and the application of the Madman Theory in US grand strategy

Abstract

Five decades before Donald Trump sought to make a virtue out of his unpredictable approach to policy, Richard Nixon adopted a similar stance in regard to foreign affairs that became known as The Madman Theory. The Nixon-Trump comparison in regard to foreign policy and their embrace of a high-risk approach to international negotiations once in office, follows striking parallels between the two men’s campaign pledges in 1968 and 2016. This paper examines the Madman Theory to consider its implementation by the Nixon administration and its subsequent adoption by the Trump White House as both leaders sought to rationalize their unpredictable approach to international flashpoints. Through a consideration of speeches, statements, transcripts and tweets it is possible to discern the manner in which both presidents embraced this approach to international relations, and the extent to which it served their interests as President of the United States.

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Notes on contributors

James D. Boys

Dr James D. Boys has held Visiting Fellowships at Kings College London (2012–15), the University of North Dakota (2009–11), and was Professor of International Political Studies at Richmond University in London (2006–2019). He has been a regular contributor to CNN, CNBC, Sky News and the BBC, while his analysis has featured in The Guardian, The Daily Telegraph, The Daily Express and The Hill. His work focuses on the relationship between foreign and domestic policy in the United States, with a particular emphasis on the Clinton administration. His first book, Clinton’s Grand Strategy: US Foreign Policy in a Post-Cold War World was published by Bloomsbury in 2015. His second book, Hillary Rising, published by Biteback in 2016, remains the only political biography of Hillary Clinton to cover her life and career until her presidential campaign in 2016. His third book, Clinton’s War on Terror: Redefining US Security Strategy 1993–2001, was published by Lynne Rienner in 2018. He currently resides in Boston, Massachusetts where he is working on his fourth book.