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Original Articles

Recognising and Responding to Relative Decline: The Case of Post-War Britain

Pages 59-76 | Published online: 25 Feb 2013
 

Abstract

It became increasingly apparent in the 1950s that Britain was in long-term relative economic decline. However, during far-reaching reviews in 1959–1963 of future policy, the Foreign Office and the Treasury could not agree that timely strategic retrenchment would be an appropriate response. Ministers believed that Britain would remain a world Power; the British economy continued to be handicapped by higher levels of defence expenditure than those of other western European Powers; and it took an economic crisis to force a decision to withdraw from east of Suez.

Acknowledgments

Acknowledgement. I am grateful for comments by Gill Bennett.

Notes

1. P. Kennedy, The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000 (London, 1988).

2. M. Chalmers, Paying for Defence: Military Spending and British Decline (London, 1985).

3. P. K. MacDonald and J. M. Parent, “Graceful Decline? The Surprising Success of Great Power Retrenchment,” International Security, 35/4 (2011), pp. 7–44.

4. M. Kirby, The Decline of British Economic Power since 1870 (London, 1981); B. Alford, Britain in the World Economy since 1880 (London, 1996); N.F.R. Crafts, Britain's Relative Economic Performance, 1870–1999 (London, 2002).

5. MacDonald and Parent, “Graceful Decline?,” p. 28.

6. A. Maddison, Monitoring the World Economy, 1820–1992 (Paris, 1995), pp. 181, 183.

7. A. Cairncross, Years of Recovery: British Economic Policy 1945–51 (London, 1985), pp. 221–31.

8. Cmd. 6707, Statistical Material Presented during the Washington Negotiations, British Parliamentary Papers, 1945–46, Volume XXI, p. 1

9. D. Moggridge, ed., Collected Writings of John Maynard Keynes, Volume XXIV (London, Cambridge, 1979), pp. 410.

10. J.E. Coulson, “The Effect of our External Financial Position on our Foreign Policy,” 30 March 1945, with covering note by Bevin, 11 March 1946, FO [Foreign Office Archives, The National Archives, Kew, London] 371/62420.

11. Bevin memorandum, 29 November 1945, in R. Bullen and M. E. Pelly, eds., Documents on British Policy Overseas I, Volume III, pp. 399–401.

12. Attlee memorandum, “Future of the Italian Colonies,” 2 March 1946, CAB [Cabinet Archives, The National Archives, Kew, London] 131/1.

13. Minute by Sargent, 12 March 1946, FO 371/57173, cited in J. Kent, British Imperial Strategy and the Origins of the Cold War (Leicester, 1993), p. 99.

14. Cairncross, Years of Recovery, pp. 113, 131, 366.

15. Bevin to Attlee, 15 August 1947, PREM (Prime Minister's Office Archives, The National Archives, Kew, London) 8/833.

16. Cairncross, Years of Recovery, pp. 45, 117–119.

17. “Effect of our External Financial Position on our Foreign Policy,” 12 February 1947, FO 371/62420.

18. K. Burk, “Britain and the Marshall Plan,” in C. Wrigley, ed., Warfare, Diplomacy and Politics: Essays in Honour of A. J. P. Taylor (London, 1986), pp. 210–30.

19. R.W.B. Clarke, “Western European Economic Policy,” 27 February 1948, and “Western and Other Unions,” 27 September 1948, in idem, Anglo–American Economic Collaboration in War and Peace, ed. A. Cairncross (Oxford, 1982), pp. 191, 204.

20. Hall to Sir Norman Brook (cabinet secretary), 15 July 1948, CAB 21/2244.

21. “The Role of Government in Promoting Higher Industrial Productivity,” EA (54) 25, 11 March 1954, CAB 134/851.

22. Cmd. 9725: The Economic Implications of Full Employment, British Parliamentary Papers 1955–56, Volume XXXVI, p. 565.

23. A. Hopkins, “Macmillan's Audit of Empire,” in P. Clarke and C. Trebilcock, eds., Understanding Decline: Perceptions and Realities of British Economic Performance (Cambridge, 1997), pp. 234–60.

24. B. Alford, British Economic Performance 1945–1975 (Basingstoke, 1988).

25. G.C. Peden, The Treasury and British Public Policy, 1906–1959 (Oxford, 2000), pp. 442–46.

26. G. P. Humphreys-Davies, “Future Trend of Defence Expenditure,” 11 February 1953, T (Treasury Archives, The National Archives, Kew, London] 233/928.

27. “Notes on the Economic Effect of the U.K. Defence Programme,” no date, but position in file indicates July 1953, T 234/276.

28. Cmnd. 124: Defence: Outline of Future Policy, British Parliamentary Papers 1956–57, Volume XXIII, p. 489.

29. See G. C. Peden, “Suez and Britain's Decline as a World Power,” Historical Journal, 55/4 (2012), 1073-1096 at 1075-1078.

30. GEN 624/2nd meeting, 4 February 1958, CAB 130/139; “Future Policy,” 28 February 1958, FO 371/135625.

31. Summaries of memoranda by Commonwealth Relations Office and Colonial Office, no date but position in file indicates February 1958, FO 371/135624.

32. “The Position of the United Kingdom in World Affairs,” 5 June 1958, PREM 11/2321.

33. For trends see R. Middleton, Government versus the Market: The Growth of the Public Sector, Economic Management and British Economic Performance, c.1890–1979 (Cheltenham, 1996), pp. 482, 498–99.

34. “The Effects of Nuclear Sufficiency,” by Templar, COS (58) 39, 13 February 1958, DEFE [Ministry of Defence Archives, The National Archives, Kew, London] 5/82, and confidential annex to COS (58) 77th meeting, 3 September, 1958, DEFE 4/111; Mountbatten to Templar, 13 June 1958, MB (Mountbatten papers, Hartley Library, Southampton University), 1/I106.

35. Brook, “The Position of the United Kingdom in World Affairs,” 4 November 1958, PREM 11/2275.

36. Brook, “Future Policy,” 20 February 1959, and enclosure “Study of Future Policy,” PREM 11/2945; P. Catterall, ed. The Macmillan Diaries, Volume II: PM and After, 1957–66 (London, 2011), pp. 221–22.

37. D. Hubback, “Sir Richard Clarke—1910–1975: A Most Unusual Civil Servant,” Public Policy and Administration, 3/1 (1988), pp. 19–34.

38. R.W.B. Clarke, “Future Policy,” 4 June 1959, T 325/65.

39. Dean to Sir Harold Caccia, Washington, 24 June 1959, FO 371/143702.

40. P. E. Ramsbotham, “Future Policy: Economic Strength (Questions 1–3) FP(B) (59) 11,” 21 July 1959, FO 371/143704.

41. “Questions A.1, A.2 and A.3,” no date, FO 371/143703.

42. P.S. Ziegler, “Future Policy: Section B,” 2 October 1959, FO 371/143705.

43. “Future Policy Study 1960–70,” C (60) 35, 29 February 1960, CAB 129/100.

44. A. Cairncross, Managing the British Economy in the 1960s: A Treasury Perspective (Basingstoke, 1996), especially 20.

45. “Cabinet: Study of Future Policy 1960/70,” FP (60) 1st meeting, 23 March 1960, CAB 134/1929.

46. “Future Policy – FP (60) 1,” note of meeting 5 April 1960, T 325/65

47. Clarke, “Defence Committee: Wednesday, 27 July 1960,” CLRK (Sir Richard Clark MSS, Churchill College, Cambridge) 1/3/1/2.

48. Clarke, “On the Need to Settle the 1961–62 Defence Budget,” 29 July 1960, CLRK 1/3/1/2.

49. “Our Foreign and Defence Policy for the Future,” memorandum by the prime minister, 29 Sept. 1961; minutes of FP (61) 1st and 2nd meetings, 6 and 10 October, CAB 134/1929.

50. Clarke, “Defence Expenditure,” 18 Dec. 1962, CLRK 1/3/2/3 and “Defence: Chequers Brief,” 4 February 1963, CLRK 1/3/2/4.

51. “Future Defence Policy,” D (63) 22, 17 June 1963, CAB 131/28.

52. Trend, “Future Defence Policy,” 9 July 1963, PREM 11/4731

53. Clarke, “DO(O) Programme of Work,” 19 November 1963, CLRK 1/3/2/5.

54. G. Bennett, Six Moments of Crisis: Inside British Foreign Policy (Oxford, 2013), Chapter 4; S. Dockrill, Britain's Retreat from East of Suez: The Choice between Europe and the World? (Basingstoke, 2002); M. Jones, “A Decision Delayed: Britain's Withdrawal from South Asia Reconsidered, 1961–68,” English Historical Review, 117/472 (2002), pp. 569–95.

55. J. Darwin, Britain and Decolonisation (London, 1988), p. 291.

56. K. Burk, Old World, New World: The Story of Britain and America (London, 2007), pp. 606–15.

57. Clarke, “DO(O) Programme of Work,” 19 November 1963, CLRK 1/3/2/5.

58. Dockrill, Britain's Retreat, p. 50.

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