Diversionary Tactics and the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000)

Abstract

Diversionary theories of war suggest that leaders may engage in bellicose foreign policies to divert the public’s attention from domestic problems and capitalize on a ‘rally around the flag’ type of effect. The evidence regarding diversionary theory is quite mixed. More recently, scholars have focused on situations that create opportunities for diversionary behavior, such as international rivalry and territorial disputes. This paper adds to the growing literature on diversionary conflict by considering the Ethiopia–Eritrea case and applying an opportunity-based approach. We assess whether the Ethiopia–Eritrea War (1998–2000) is consistent with diversionary explanations for the war, as many have previously claimed.

Keywords:

• Diversionary war
• Ethiopia
• Eritrea
• Ethiopia–Eritrea War

Notes

1. Brecher and Wilkenfeld, A Study of Crisis.

2. “Ethiopia: What the Editors Say.”

3. “Why Are They Fighting?,” 44.

4. “Ethiopia: What Will 1999 Bring?”

5. Sahle-Selassie Haile-Selassie, “Stability in the Horn of Africa.”

6. “Ethiopia: Battle for Hearts.”

7. Tesfai, “The Cause of the Eritrean-Ethiopian Border Conflict.”

8. Ibid.

9. Coser, The Function of Social Conflict.

10. Mitchell and Thyne, “Contentions Issues as Opportunities.”

11. Gelpi, “Democratic Diversions”; Gent, “Scapegoating Strategically”; Pickering and Kisangani, “Democracy and Diversionary Military Intervention”; Richards et al., “Good Times, Bad Times”; Smith, “Diversionary Foreign Policy”; Sobek, “Rallying Around the Podesta”; and Tarar, “Diversionary Incentives.”

12. Mitchell and Moore, “Presidential Uses of Force”; Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Uses”; Mitchell and Thyne, “Contentious Issues as Opportunities”; Tir, “Territorial Diversion.”

13. Gelpi, “Democratic Diversions.”

14. Oakes, “Diversionary War and Argentina’s Invasion.”

15. Sobek, “Rallying Around the Podesta.”

16. Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary.”

17. Pickering and Kisangani, “Democracy and Diversionary Military Intervention.”

18. Ibid.

19. Kisangani and Pickering, “Democratic Accountability.”

20. Richards et al., “Good Times, Bad Times”; and Tarar, “Diversionary Incentives.”

21. Ibid.

22. Jung, “Foreign Targets and Diversionary.”

23. Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Uses,” 945.

24. Tir, “Territorial Diversion.”

25. Ibid, 417.

26. Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Uses”; and Mitchell and Thyne, “Contentious Issues as Opportunities.”

27. Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

28. Elman and Elman, “How Not to Be Lakatos Intolerant”; and George and Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development, 117.

29. Plaut, “Background to War,” 5.

30. Ibid.; and Mulugeta, “The Ethiopian-Eritrean War.”

31. Plaut, “Background to War,” 5.

32. Ibid., 5, 6; and Mulugeta, “The Ethiopian-Eritrean War.”

33. Plaut, “Background to War”; and Woldgabriel, “A War for National Unity.”

34. Sarbo, “Ethiopia and Eritrea”; and Tadesse, The Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

35. Mekonnen and Tesfagiorgis, “Cases and Consequences.”

36. Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

37. Tadesse, “The Eritrean-Ethiopian War.”

38. Plaut, “Backround to War.”

39. Mulugeta, “The Eritrean-Ethiopian War.”

40. Sarkees and Wayman, “Resort to War”; and Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

41. See Lata, “The Ethiopia-Eritrea War”; Lata, “Introduction”; Sarbo, “Ethiopia and Eritrea”; and Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

42. See Lorton, “The Ethiopia-Eritrea Conflict”; Sarbo, “Ethiopia and Ertirea”; and Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

43. Jacquin-Berdal, “State and War”; and Pateman, “Legacy of Eritrea’s National.”

44. Asrat, “Towards a Sustainable Peace,” 57.

45. Jacquin-Berdal, “State and War.”

46. Pool, From Guerrillas to Government.

47. Villicana and Venkataraman, “Public Policy Failure,” 555.

48. Woldgabriel, “War for National Unity.”

49. Villicana and Venkataraman, “Public Policy Failure,” 557.

50. Steves, “Regime Change and War.”

51. “Eritrea: Opposition Figure Criticizes,” EE/D2639/A.

52. “Two New Opposition Radios,” AL/D3075/A; and “Third Opposition Radio,” AL/D3087/A.

53. Selassie, “The Ethio-Eritrean War.”

54. Tadesse, The Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

55. Hamilton, “Beyond the Border War.”

56. Tadesse, The Eritrean-Ethiopian War.

57. Lata, “The Ethiopia-Eritrea War.”

58. Styan, “Twisting Ethio-Eritrean Economic.”

59. Ibid.; and Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War.

60. Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War.

61. Asrat, “Towards a Sustainable Peace”; Mulugeta, “The Ethiopian-Eritrean War”; Sarbo, “Ethiopia and Eritrea”; and Styan, “Twisting Ethio-Eritrean Economic.”

62. Plaut, “Background to War.”

63. Styan, “Twisting Ethio-Eritrean Economic.”

64. Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War.

65. Ibid., 41.

66. Fessehatzion, Shattered Illusions, Broken Promise.

67. Ibid.

68. Styan, “Twisting Ethio-Eritrean Economic,” 181.

69. “Ethiopia: One Birr Reported.”

70. Steves, “Regime Change and War,” 126.

71. Mitchell and Prins, “Rivalry and Diversionary Uses”; Mitchell and Thyne, “Contentious Issues as Opportunities”; and Tir, “Territorial Diversion.”

72. Thompson and Dreyer, Handbook of International Rivalries.

73. Dias, “Conduct of an Inter-state War.”

74. Fessehatzion, Shattered Illusions, Broken Promise.

75. Plaut, “Background to War.”

76. Connell, “Against More Odds.”

77. Ibid., 196.

78. Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War, 115.

79. Ibid., 116; and Plaut, “Background to War,” 15.

80. Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War, 116.

81. Plaut, “Background to War.”

82. Tesfai, “Cause of the Eritrean-Ethiopian.”

83. Sahle-Selassie Haile-Selassie, “Stability in the Horn.”

84. Tir, “Territorial Diversion.”

85. Negash and Tronvoll, Brothers at War, 115, 116.

86. Putnam, “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics.”