Bringing the war home: the strategic logic of ‘North Caucasian terrorism’ in Russia

ABSTRACT

Terrorism connected to the North Caucasus has been pervasive in Russia between 1992 and 2018. Based on an original dataset, this article presents statistics on rates of terrorist attacks outside of the North Caucasus, their geography and targets, and the tactics used. It argues that terrorism by North Caucasian insurgents has long retained a strategic logic despite their conversion to radical Islamism. Accordingly, the end of North Caucasian terrorism was determined by the erosion of its strategic character as an increasingly vague ideological project replaced concrete political goals among the insurgents.

KEYWORDS:

• Terrorism
• Russia
• North Caucasus
• Islamism
• nationalism
• suicide bombing

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Correction Statement

This article has been republished with minor changes. These changes do not impact the academic content of the article.

Notes

1. The North Caucasus encompasses Karachay–Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia-Alania, Ingushetia, Chechnya, and Dagestan. The North Caucasian Federal District includes Stavropol Krai (region). Stavropol is though populated for over 80% by ethnic Russians and sees different political dynamics. In this article, Stavropol Krai is dealt with separately from the North Caucasus.

2. Maher, Salafi-Jihadism; Kepel, Jihad; for the quoted definition of Islamism: Roy, Islam, ix.

3. The paper refers to North Caucasian groups without disaggregating between individual units. The reason is that these groups, save for a few exceptions, have operated under a single command. This is especially so for groups that launched large-scale terrorist attacks outside of the North Caucasus. More than the individual units, it is important to know the masterminds that engineered the attacks.

4. On terrorism in Russia: Pape, Fuse, 251–83; Stepanova, “Approach,” 301–22; on terrorism as part of the wars in the North Caucasus: Bakke, “Help,” 150–87; Bakke, “Copying,” 31–62; Moore, “Bodies,” 395–415; Ratelle, “Assessment,” 1–24; Souleimanov, War; Tishkov, Chechnya.

5. Richardson, Terrorists, 4–6.

6. Most definitions limit terrorism to attacks on non-combatants: Schmid, “Terrorism”; including in Critical Terrorism Studies: Jackson, “Commitments”; but not all of them: Neumann and Smith, Strategy, 8. Terrorism is now rightly seen increasingly as a tactic that could also be used by states.

7. “Federalnyi Zakon.”

8. Stepanova, “Approach,” 310–11.

9. Crenshaw, “Causes,” 381–85; McCormick, “Decision-Making,” 480.

10. Bloom, Dying to Kill; Crenshaw, “Logic,” 7–24; Hoffman, Inside; Kydd and Walter, “Strategies,” 49–80; Lake, “Extremism,” 15–29; McCormick, “Decision-Making,” 480–95; Pape, “Introduction,” 643–50; Pape, “Logic,” 2.

11. Abrahms, “Effectiveness,” 374; Pape, “Logic,” 13–14.

12. Hoffman, Inside, 84–89, 229–56; Moghadam, “Suicide,” 707–729; Moghadam, “Martyrs.”; Piazza, “Islamist,” 62–88; Roy, “Hate,”; About changes in the 2000s: Laqueur, “Postmodern,” 24–6; Münkler, Wars, 99–116; Crenshaw, Explaining, 31–66.

13. Benjamin and Simon, “ Face.”

14. Crenshaw, Explaining, 31–66.

15. Ibid; Hoffman, Inside, 89–97; Pape, “Logic,” 1–19.

16. Hegghammer, “Fighters,” 53–94; Moghadam, “Martyrs.”

17. Hoffman, Inside, 158–63; Moghadam, “Martyrs.”; Wiktorowicz and Kaltenthaler, “Islam,” 421–48.

18. Bakke, “Help”; Sagramoso, “Radicalisation,” 561–595.

19. Juergensmeyer, “Religion,” 140.

20. Abrahms, “Effectiveness,” 366–93

21. Abrahms, “Terrorism,” 42–78; see also the same claim in Neumann and Smith, Strategy, 74–75.

22. Hoffman, “Inside”; Hoffman McCormick, “Signalling,” 243–81; Pape, Fuse, 251–83; Pape, “Logic”; Moghadam, “Terrorism,” 707–29 for a critic of Pape.

23. Abrahms, “Effectiveness,” 367; Kydd and Walter, “Strategies”; Hoffman and McCormick, “Terrorism.”

24. The appendix gives the list of attacks and the information resources used to select the attacks.

25. Ratelle and Souleimanov, “Retaliation.”

26. The bombing by an IS-affiliate of the Metrojet Flight 9268 between Sharm El Sheikh and Saint Petersburg on 31 October 2015 and the bombing in the Saint Petersburg metro on 3 April 2017 were notably excluded (see Conclusion). Another seven minor attacks by IS since 2015 were excluded as being either directed against security forces, or leading to defused IEDs.

27. The hostage takeover in Beslan happened in North Ossetia-Alania (see Part 3).

28. “Terroristicheskie.”

29. Shlapentokh, “Basayev,” 139–45.

30. Malashenko, Kadyrov, 23–27; Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Jihad,” 111–12.

31. Z. Yandarbiyev was acting President after Dudayev until his defeat to Maskhadov. He was then in exile in Qatar. At the start of the Second Chechen War, he visited Mullah Omar in Afghanistan, obtaining his support for Chechnya. Mamon and Pilis, Paradise.

32. Kramer, “Guerrilla,” 251–52; Bakke, “Help”; Sagramoso, “Radicalisation.”

33. Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Jihad,” 111.

34. “Sergei Stepashin”; Tishkov, Chechnya, 164–79.

35. “Basayev”; Kramer, “Guerrilla,” 268.

36. Ibid. In The Life and Times of Khattab, the propaganda movie about him, Khattab says that the attack on Dagestan was meant to support Dagestani radical Islamist communities against Russia. In summer 1999, he was already talking about bringing the war to the entire North Caucasus; Bakke, “Copying,” 48.

37. Malashenko, Kadyrov, 23–27.

38. Ibid, 38–39; and Malashenko, Islam, 111.

39. Malashenko, Kadyrov, 111.

40. The Kremlin had also reached to Akhmad Zakayev in November 2001 and Ruslan Gelayev. Russel, “Conflict,” 187–88; Mamon and Pilis, Chechnya.

41. Rechkalov, “Il”yasov.”

42. Souleimanov, War, 282; It is likely that Maskhadov was aware of the hostage takeover in Moscow.

43. Malashenko, Kadyrov, 18–9, 46–9.

44. Ibid, 51–84.

45. Silin and Tokareva, “Ramzan.”

46. For example: Politkovskaïa, Tchétchénie.

47. Pape, “Logic,” 7.

48. Babitsky, “Basayev.”

49. Ibid.

50. Mamon and Pilis, Chechnya.

51. Souleimanov, War, 112–14; Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Jihad,” 107.

52. Gamov, “Chernomyrdin.”

53. Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Jihad”, 108; for the terrorists” account of the attack: “Znai Svoyu Istoriyu. “My”.”

54. Souleimanov, War, 282.

55. Hoffman and McCormick, “Terrorism.”

56. Bakke, “Help,” 180–81; Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Suicide,” 11; Bakke, “Copying,” 53–7 on the influence of foreigners in resorting to more radical tactics.

57. “Gunmen.”

58. Ibid.

59. Kara-Murza, “‘Nord-Ost.” It is unclear to which extent these additional demands were shared with the authorities.

60. Shlapentokh, “Basayev,” 140.

61. Babitsky, “Basayev”; “Znai Svoyu Istoriyu. Chekisty.”

62. Ibid; Souleimanov, War, 246–53.

63. Ibid. It is unclear to which extent these conditions were shared with the authorities.

64. Insurgents” websites speak of it as a turning point that united the insurgents behind radical Islam. “Abu-l”-Valid Al”-Gamidi.”

65. Kramer, “Guerrilla,” 246. There was training by Palestinian suicide bombers.

66. Kornilov, “Basayev.”

67. Hoffman, Inside, 132.

68. Bloom, “Bombshells,” 1–21.

69. See note 48 above .

70. “Sadulayev: “Chechenskoe”.”

71. “Prezident ChRI.”

72. Souleimanov, War, 261–72.

73. Russel, “Conflict,” 193.

74. “Ofitsial”nyi Reliz.”

75. “Doku Abu Usman.”

76. Youngman, “Ideology,” 376.

77. Moore, “Bodies,” 399–400.

78. “Movladi Udugov.”

79. See note 74 above.

80. Campana and Ducol, “Voices”, 679–700; as examples: “Znai Svoyu Istoriyu. ‘My.’; ‘Pis”mo.”; ‘Dzhikhad.”

81. “Zakaev.”

82. “Amir IK Dokku Abu Usman Nazval.”

83. Leahy, “Moratorium.”

84. Vatchagaev, “Gakaev.”

85. For example: “Fatwa.”

86. “Amir IK Dokku Abu Usman Izmenil.”

87. “Amir IK Dokku Abu Usman Otmenil.”

88. “Dagestanskie.”

89. For example, “Pis”mo.”

90. “Kadii.”; and “Amir IK Abu Mukhammad.”

91. On the attacks in Volgograd: “Shariatskii Khukm.”

92. Duffy Toft and Zhukov, “Islamists,” 222–38.

93. “Statistika.”; “Foreign.”

94. See striking examples: “Imarat Kavkaz.”; “Abu Tal’kha,”; and Campana and Ducol, “Voices,” 694; Speckhard and Akhmedova, “Jihad,” 128–37.

95. “Modzhakhedy.”

96. Mashkin, “Podtsepili.”

97. “Dzhikhad.”; Yarlykapov, “Terrorism”.

Additional information

Notes on contributors

Vassily A. Klimentov

Vassily Klimentov is a PhD Candidate in International History and International Relations/Political Science at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. He holds a MA in General History from the University of Geneva and a MA in Asian Studies from the Graduate Institute and the University of Geneva. He works on Islamism in Russia and the Middle East. He has worked as an analyst in humanitarian missions in the Middle East.