Russia's Muslims and Electoral Participation: A Comparative Analysis of Regional Patterns

Abstract

This article examines the impact of Muslim minorities upon the modes of regional electoral politics in Russia. In particular, the interweaving of ethnic and religious aspects proved to be a significant factor in electoral mobilization, determining the levels of electoral activity and success. At the same time, a significant variation observed between the cases of Ulyanovsk and Astrakhan provinces turned out to be impossible to explain without using the characteristics of regional political regimes as explanatory variables. This led to the development of a multifactor model of ethnic Muslim activism. The model starts with the external factors of the political context, and then incorporates factors directly related to ethnicity and religion. The categorization of regional political regimes follows the general distinction between the consensual and conflictual types as developed by Arend Lijphart. The analysis demonstrates that the latter type impairs the conventional political participation and legislative representation of Russia's ethnic Muslims.

Keywords:

• Russia
• Muslims
• elections
• electoral participation
• legislative representation
• political regime

Acknowledgements

This research has been made possible by a United States Institute of Peace Grant (USIP-017-06S), and greatly assisted by the efficient administration of research provided by the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (Washington, DC). Much of the empirical work was conducted by the co-recipient of the USIP grant, Iulia Shevchenko. I am also very grateful to the editor of Islam and Christian–Muslim Relations and the journal's anonymous reviewers for their most valuable comments on an earlier draft of the article. While being greatly indebted to these organizations and individuals, I have to stress that they bear no responsibility for the views expressed. All errors of fact and interpretation are also entirely mine.

Notes

1. See Vanparys, Jacobs, and Torrekens (2013) on the impact of dramatic events, such as the tragedy of September 11, 2011, the bombings in Madrid and London, and the murder of Theo Van Gogh in Amsterdam, on the public perception of Islam in Europe.

2. All census data reported in this study are from the official site of the 2002 census, http://www.perepis2002.ru/. The reason I did not use the data from the more recent 2010 census is that, chronologically, this study covers the period from 1999 to 2006.

3. Some of the information provided below is from McFaul and Petrov (1998) and Matsuzato (2004).

4. Sources for the 2003 and 2006 elections are the official Internet sites of the regional commissions of Astrakhan province (http://www.astrakhan.izbirkom.ru) and Ulyanovsk province (http://www.ulyanovsk.izbirkom.ru). The candidate lists for the 1999 elections in Ulyanovsk province and the 2001 elections in Astrakhan province are from Narodnaia Gazeta, November 23, 1999, and Volga, October 12, 2001, respectively. The lists of elected deputies were at that time published at http://ww.fci.ru.

5. See Golosov (2011) on the role played by United Russia in the political lives of the regions in 2003–05.

6. For factual information on the developments in North Caucasus from which the imagery of Wahhabism was largely derived, see Bowers, Akhmadov, and Derrick (2004) and Gammer (2005).