Climate change and dengue risk in central region of Thailand

ABSTRACT

Dengue poses a huge public health threat. It places physical and financial burden on individuals affected, family, and national health systems. This descriptive study aimed for two specific objectives; to investigate the weather effects on dengue incidence and to estimate level of risk in the central region of Thailand. It utilized a 10-year population level dengue morbidity data and meteorological data from 2007 to 2016. Kriging method was used to interpolate a weighted risk factor upon a 5-point risk estimate was developed for estimating area risk on a 5-point scale. The findings showed that 2 out of 16 provinces (12.5%) are strong to very strong risk areas for dengue, including Bangkok and Nonthaburi provinces. The study revealed that the impact of La Niña and El Niño on increased dengue incidence and risk level in Bangkok. We recommend further studies to establish intersections of dengue disease and social determinants of health.

KEYWORDS:

• Climate change
• dengue incidence
• dengue risk
• Thailand

Acknowledgments

This work was supported by Thammasat University under the TU New Research Scholar, Contract No. 20/2560. We would also like to thank the Thailand Meteorological Department for the meteorological data, as well as the Ministry of Public Health for generously providing the dengue data. We gratefully thank Associate Professor Dr Nitaya Vajanapoom for her advice on epidemiological aspects. We appreciate the assistance from Mr Jirachot Tongkaew to create the maps. The study was approved by the Ethics Review Sub-Committee for Research Involving Human Research Subjects of Thammasat University, No. 3 (Faculty of Health Sciences and Science and Technology) (COE No. 071/2560).

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Thammasat University; TU New Research Scholar; [20/2560].