Bayesian modeling of hematologic cancer and vehicular air pollution among young people in the city of São Paulo, Brazil

ABSTRACT

Traffic-related air pollution is being associated with hematologic cancer in young individuals. This study performed a spatial analysis of the hematologic cancer incidence and mortality among younger people, using a Bayesian approach, to associate with traffic density in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Two databases were employed: incidence (2002–2011) and mortality (2002–2013). The relationships between the cases of hematologic cancer and the covariates – traffic density, the Municipal Human Development Index (MHDI), and population density – were evaluated using a Besag–York–Mollié ecological model with relative risks (RRs) estimates. Per 1-unit standard-deviation increase in traffic density, in the MHDI, and in population density, the RR for the incidence was 1.06 (95% CI: 0.97–1.14), 1.28 (95% CI: 1.16–1.42), and 1.01 (95% CI: 0.94–1.08), respectively. For mortality, no covariates were considered risk factors. Our findings suggest significant association between living in regions with better socioeconomic conditions, where traffic density is usually higher, and risk of hematologic cancer in younger people.

KEYWORDS:

• Air pollution
• vehicle emissions
• hematologic cancer
• Bayesian approach
• disease mapping

Acknowledgments

We thank the Population-based Cancer Registry of São Paulo and the São Paulo Municipal Health Department for the availability of the databases and the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel (CAPES) for the PhD scholarship.

Declaration of interest statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP) [FAPESP/PPP-SUS 2006/61616-5]; National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) [475362/2012-8].