Asymmetric effects of fine particulate matter and stringency policy on COVID-19 intensity

ABSTRACT

This study aims to examine the influence of environmental performance (PM2.5) on COVID-19 intensity . For this purpose, we employ the newly introduced Hidden Panel Cointegration test and Nonlinear Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. Results indicate the asymmetric linkages between PM2.5 and COVID-19 intensity, as the positive shock in PM2.5 raises the COVID-19 intensity by 21%, whereas the negative shock in PM2.5 decreases COVID-19 intensity by 12% in long-run. On the contrary, the positive shock in stringency measures decreases COVID-19 intensity by 42.8%, while the negative shock in stringency policy increases COVID-19 intensity by 66.7%. These findings imply that higher pollution increases the COVID-19 severity while higher stringency measures slow down people’s movement and reduce COVID-19 intensity. However, a sudden negative shock in lockdown increases people’s interaction, leading to a higher spread of the virus. These results suggest that governments should adopt stringent action plans to contain the transmissibility of COVID-19.

KEYWORDS:

• Air pollution
• asymmetric effects
• PM2.5
• climate change
• COVID-19 pandemic
• non-Linear panel ARDL

Author contributions

Conceptualization: Muhammad Irfan, Asif Razzaq; Data curation: Muhammad Irfan; Formal analysis: Asif Razzaq, Muhammad Irfan; Investigation: Yiniu Cui; Methodology: Muhammad Irfan, Asif Razzaq; Project administration: Muhammad Irfan; Resources: Apichit Maneengam; Software: Asif Razzaq, Muhammad Irfan; Supervision: Muhammad Irfan; Validation: Ángel Acevedo-Duque; Visualization: Muhammad Irfan; Roles/Writing – original draft: Muhammad Irfan; Writing – review & editing: Asif Razzaq, Yiniu Cui, Apichit Maneengam Ángel Acevedo-Duque.

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Funding

The author(s) reported there is no funding associated with the work featured in this article.