Pegged exchange rate regime and its impact on inflation in BRICS nations: Country-wise evidence

Abstract

During the 1990s and 2000s, many developing nations accepted fixed exchange rate regimes to sustain price stability. By pegging their currencies to an anchor currency (i.e. US dollar), developing countries could bring credibility and confidence into their economies. The study tries to analyse the impact of the pegged exchange rate regime on inflation in BRICS countries for the period spanning from 2003 to 2022. The result points to the loss of monetary policy autonomy due to the ‘impossible trinity’ coming into play with a steady increase in capital inflows. The country’s large trade surpluses and extensive trade relationships may buffer the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices, as changes in the exchange rate may be absorbed by changes in trade volumes or pricing strategies. Other factors like demographic trends or government interventions in markets could overshadow the influence of the exchange rate regime on inflation. The impact of changes in the exchange rate regimes on inflation may operate with lags, meaning that any effects may not be immediately observable in the data. The analysis in this study proposes that exchange rate regimes choice and money supply influence the inflation dynamics in the BRICS countries. It merely reflects the success of the central bank in neutralizing its very effort of maintaining the pegged rate, which gives rise to inflationary growth of the money supply.

Keywords:

• Pegged exchange rate regime
• inflation
• money supply
• open economy ARDL model
• cointegration

JEL Classifications:

• O24
• E31
• E51
• F41

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).

Additional information

Funding

No funding was received to assist with the preparation of this manuscript.