Convergence or divergence in desertification risk? Scale-based assessment and policy implications in a Mediterranean country

Abstract

This paper explores changes (1990–2000) in two environmental indexes with the aim of providing empirical evidence on regional and local convergence in an increasing-impact phenomenon such as Land Degradation (LD) in Italy. Convergence analysis for ESAI (Environmental Sensitive Area Index) and LVI (Land Vulnerability Index) was developed at five different geographical scales. Results indicate that territorial disparities in land vulnerability tend to increase during the investigated period following a defined spatial pattern that depends on land quality, the environmental context and the economic performance of regional systems. Finally, the implications this process has on policy strategies aimed at mitigating desertification risk are discussed.

Keywords:

• desertification risk
• convergence
• synthetic index
• homogeneous regions
• southern Europe

Acknowledgement

This paper reflects ideas and research activities of the authors that should not be attributed to ISTAT or CRA.

Notes

1. By investigating the effect of different geographical scales on regression results, the analysis (indirectly) provides a sensitivity evaluation for convergence estimates (Sheppard and McMaster 2004).

2. Another reason for developing such an analysis is to compare areas with similar environmental, economic or institutional conditions (e.g. Barro and Sala-i-Martin 2004)

3. It should be noted that, although statistically significant, the proportion of variance explained by the regression models varies among the investigated scales. However, a substantial consistence in DR convergence pattern was observed at all the considered scales. This appears to us as more striking than the statistical significance of the pattern itself.