Water management decision makers' evaluations of uncertainty in a decision support system: the case of WaterSim in the Decision Theater

Abstract

Model-based decision support systems are increasingly used to link knowledge to action for environmental decision making. How stakeholders perceive uncertainty in models and visualisations affects their perceptions of credibility, relevance and usability of these tools. This paper presents a case study of water decision makers’ evaluations of WaterSim, a dynamic water simulation model presented in an immersive decision theatre environment. Results reveal that decision makers’ understandings of uncertainty in their evaluations of decision support systems reflect both scientific and political discourse. We conclude with recommendations for design and evaluation of decision support systems that incorporate decision makers' views.

Keywords:

• climate change
• water sustainability
• visualisation
• modelling
• Arizona

Acknowledgements

This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. SES-0345945, Decision Center for a Desert City, and Grant No. SES-0951366, Decision Center for a Desert City II: Urban Climate Adaptation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendation expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation (NSF).