Adaptation potential of ecosystem-based management to climate change in the eastern Canadian boreal forest

Abstract

Ecosystem-based management (EBM) of forests is gaining acceptance for its focus on the maintenance of the long-term integrity of ecosystem processes, but climate change challenges this view because of its impacts on these very processes. We have therefore evaluated the robustness of EBM to projected climate change, considering the role of climate on forest growth and fire regime in a boreal forest of eastern Canada. A climate sensitive growth index model was calibrated for three commercial species and used to project the evolution of merchantable volume for two climate scenarios (B1 and A2) under conventional and EBM strategies. Current burn rate and burn rates under future climate scenarios were also considered. Under the most extreme projected climate scenario, the periodic timber supply could be reduced by up to 79% through direct (growth reduction) and indirect (fire) effects. However, ecological indicators show that EBM is a more robust forest management strategy than conventional one demonstrating its adaptation potential to climate change at least in the short term.

Keywords:

• timber supply analysis
• climate change
• fire
• adaptation
• boreal forest

Acknowledgements

Financial support for this project was provided by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Hakim Ouzennou provided help in analyzing succession pathways. We would like to thank Steve Cumming for his rigorous review and Mitch Thompson for editing English. We would also like to thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers whose insightful comments greatly improved the earlier version of this manuscript.