Effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in: a spatial econometric analysis of Chinese cities

Abstract

To explore the potential effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in in China, this paper constructed the measurement formula of industrial transfer based on output and demand, and calculated carbon lock-in according to carbon sink and carbon emissions. By means of a spatial autoregressive model and a panel threshold model, we discussed the spatial spillover of carbon lock-in and the effect of industrial transfer. The findings are as follows: (1) The level of carbon lock-in does have a positive spatial spillover effect between economic neighboring provinces. (2) The effect of industrial transfer on carbon lock-in depends on industry characteristics. (3) Technological progress has direct and indirect carbon unlocking effects, energy structure, trade openness and increased fiscal expenditure exacerbate the carbon lock-in dilemma, while economic growth and carbon lock-in show an inverted “U” relationship. (4) There is a non-linear relationship between industrial transfer and carbon lock-in. Finally, we propose some recommendations to reduce dependence on high-carbon fossil energy and speed up the process of carbon unlocking in China.

Keywords:

• carbon lock-in
• industrial transfer
• spatial autoregressive model
• panel threshold model
• China

Declaration of interests

The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this paper.

Supplemental data

Supplemental data for this article can be accessed online at https://doi.org/10.1080/09640568.2021.1919067

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Key Project of National Social Science Fund of China (grant number 19AJY011); the Key Project of Jiangsu’s Social Science Fund (grant number 19CSJ010); and scientific Research Fund for the Fifth Phase of “333 High-level Talent Training Project” of Jiangsu Province in 2020 (grant number BRA2020038).