Economic Conditions, Unemployment and Perceived Government Accountability

Abstract

When it comes to salient political issues, economic conditions and unemployment have been at the top of the list in Germany for quite some time. Especially when elections are imminent these topics gain tremendous importance, because perceptions of the economic situation as well as personal experience with economic hardship (like unemployment) are often believed to be important determinants of voting behaviour. Although the federal elections of 2002 and 2005 cannot be cited as prime examples of German ‘economy-driven elections’ (other issues like the Iraq Crisis in 2002 and the rather unusual political circumstances surrounding the unscheduled 2005 elections were in the foreground) economic perceptions did have significant effects on voting decisions. Based on data from a 2002–2005 panel survey carried out during election time, this article takes a closer look at these effects. We furthermore analyse the extent to which they vary by attributed government accountability for the economy. Attention is also focused on significant differences between East and West Germany.

Notes

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2. J. Maier and H. Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions and the 1994 and 1998 Federal Elections’, German Politics 8 (1999), pp.33–47.

3. M. Jung and D. Roth, ‘Wer zu spät geht, den bestraft der Wähler: Eine Analyse der Bundestagswahl 1998’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte B52 (1998), pp.3–19.

4. O. Niedermayer, Oskar, ‘Wandel durch Flut und Irak-Krieg? Wahlkampfverlauf und Wahlkampfstrategien der Parteien’, in E. Jesse (ed.): Bilanz der Bundestagswahl 2002. Voraussetzungen, Ergebnisse, Folgen (Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2003), pp.37–72.

5. M. Jung and A. Wolf, ‘Der Wählerwille erzwingt die große Koalition’, Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte B51/52 (2005), pp.3–12.

6. H. Rattinger and J. Krämer, ‘Economic Conditions and Voting Preferences in East and West Germany, 1989–94’, in C.J. Anderson, and C. Zelle (eds): Stability and Change in German Elections: How Electorates Merge, Converge, or Collide (Westport, Conn.: Praeger, 1998), pp.99–120.

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8. C.A.E. Goodhart and R.J. Bhansali, ‘Political Economy’, Political Studies 18 (1970), pp.43–106; G. Kramer, ‘Short-Term Fluctuations in U.S. Voting Behavior, 1896–1964’, American Political Science Review 65 (1971), pp.131–43.

9. A. Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy (New York: Harper & Row, 1957).

10. Kramer, ‘Short-Term Fluctuations’.

11. D.A. Hibbs, ‘Political Parties and Macroeconomic Policy’, American Political Science Review 71 (1977), pp.1467–87; D.A. Hibbs, ‘On the Demand for Economic Outcome: Macroeconomic Performance and Mass Political Support in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany’, Journal of Politics 44 (1982), pp.426–62.

12. A comprehensive discussion of incumbency-oriented versus policy-oriented approaches, as well as of the importance of individual versus collective economic perceptions is presented by D.R. Kiewiet, Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983).

13. Kiewiet, Macroeconomics; D.R. Kinder and D.R. Kiewiet, ‘Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting’, American Journal of Political Science 23 (1979), pp.495–527; D.R. Kinder and D.R. Kiewiet, ‘Sociotropic Politics: The American Case’, British Journal of Political Science (1981), pp.129–61.

14. H. Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual Economic Judgements and Voting in West Germany, 1961–1984’, European Journal of Political Research 14 (1986), pp.393–419; H. Rattinger and T. Faas, ‘Wahrnehmungen der Wirtschaftslage und Wahlverhalten 1977 bis 1998’, in H.-D. Klingemann and M. Kaase (eds), Wahlen und Wähler: Analysen aus Anlaß der Bundestagswahl 1998 (Wiesbaden: Westdeutscher Verlag, 2001), pp.283–308.

15. Roth, ‘Ökonomische Situation’; H. Rattinger, ‘Unemployment and the 1976 Election in Germany: Some Findings at the Aggregate and the Individual Level of Analysis’, in D.A. Hibbs (ed.), Contemporary Political Economy (Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1981), pp.121–35; Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’.

16. Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’, p.396.

17. Ibid., pp.395–7.

18. Roth, ‘Ökonomische Situation’; Rattinger, ‘Unemployment and the 1976 Election’, pp.130–31; H. Rattinger, ‘Unemployment and Elections in West Germany’, in H. Norpoth, M.S. Lewis-Beck and J.-D. Lafay (eds), Economics and Politics: The Calculus of Support (Ann Arbor, Mich.: University of Michigan Press, 1991); K.L. Schlozman and S. Verba, Injury to Insult: Unemployment, Class and Political Response (Cambridge: Havard University Press, 1979).

19. T. Faas, ‘Arbeitslose (Nicht-)Wähler – Ausmaß und Erklärungen der Wahlbeteiligung von Arbeitslosen.’ Paper presented at the annual meeting of the DVPW-group Wahlen und politische Einstellungen, on Politische Herausforderungen im Verhältnis von Bürgern und Politik, Mannheim, June 2005; T. Faas and H. Rattinger, ‘Politische Konsequenzen von Arbeitslosigkeit: Eine Analyse der Bundestagswahlen 1980 bis 2002’, in A.M. Wüst (ed.), Politbarometer (Opladen: Leske + Budrich, 2003), pp.205–38.

20. Further results are only reported for 2002 due to a lack of comparable indicators in the 2005 data set.

21. The reason for the scales in Table 5 being four-point, while those in Table 4 are five-point, is that the items in Table 5 are taken from the ISSP and were to be replicated in an identical fashion.

22. For alternative estimation techniques see Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’; Rattinger and Faas, ‘Wahrnehmungen’.

23. Roth, ‘Ökonomische Variablen’.

24. Rattinger, ‘Unemployment and the 1976 Election’; Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’.

25. Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’; Rattinger and Faas, ‘Wahrnehmungen’.

26. E.g., Maier and Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions and the 1994 and 1998 Federal Elections’; J. Maier and H. Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions and Voting Behaviour in German Federal Elections, 1994–2002’, German Politics 13 (2004), pp.201–17.

27. Rattinger, ‘Collective and Individual’; Maier and Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions and the 1994 and 1998 Federal Elections’; Maier and Rattinger, ‘Economic Conditions and Voting Behavior’; Rattinger and Faas, ‘Wahrnehmungen’.