Risk vs Reward Strategies in Indirect Presidential Elections: Political Parties and the Selection of Presidential Electors in Germany, 1949–2017

Abstract

Parties across parliamentary republics compete fiercely over capturing the presidential office. However, they are often torn between seeing their preferred candidate elected and exploiting the election for publicity purposes. The German case, specifically parties’ ability to nominate extra-parliamentarian electors (EPEs) as part of the electoral college, offers a particularly interesting perspective on how parties balance these competing goals. While EPEs allow parties to boost their profile and strengthen ties with selected groups, they also present a risk factor as their voting behaviour is more difficult to predict. Based on a novel data set on party delegations in German presidential elections, 1949–2017, the analysis shows that – contrary to traditional assumptions – competition in the electoral college did not play a role in EPE nominations. Rather, party strategies were influenced by the varying signalling power of the elections. Parties were more risk-averse and nominated fewer EPEs during grand coalitions, when they were part of the federal government, or when federal elections approached, yet nominated more EPEs when they had a larger support base to reward. The results call for further comparative research on indirect elections and different types of EPEs in Germany.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I gratefully acknowledge Janne Tukiainen’s substantive comments on an earlier version of this paper presented at the annual conference of the European Political Science Association in 2016. I would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers as well as Benjamin Engst, Cece Janega-McLennan, Philipp Meyer, and Dominic Nyhuis for further insightful comments and suggestions.

DATA AVAILABILITY STATEMENT

The data that support the findings of this study are available via figshare.

DOI: 10.6084/m9.figshare.6263060.

These data were derived from the following resources available in the public domain: Deutscher Bundestag (n.d.). Die Bundesversammlungen seit 1949 – Dokumentation. http://www.bundestag.de/parlament/aufgaben/bundesversammlung/bundesversammlungen_seit_1949 (accessed 6 January 2018).

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

Philipp Köker is a Postdoctoral Research Fellow in the Department of Political Science, Leibniz University Hannover, Germany. His research interests include comparative presidential politics, political parties, and elections in modern political regimes. He is the author of Presidential Activism and Veto Power in Central and Eastern Europe (Palgrave, 2017) and winner of the ECPR Jean Blondel Prize 2016.

ORCID

Philipp Köker http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2529-6947

Notes

1 Thus, it also includes overhang seats and compensatory mandates.

2 Although joint lists have become the norm, they raise a host of legal questions – see e.g. Zicht, Fehndrich, and Cantow (2017) with reference to the 2017 Federal Convention.

3 For instance, the list of the SPD in Schleswig-Holstein has traditionally included representatives of the South Schleswig Voters’ Association (SSW) which represents Danish and Frisian minorities yet typically holds only 1–3 seats in the state parliament.

4 This even applies to EPEs with stronger partisan ties such as long-time members or lower-level functionaries.

5 For instance, in 2010 the CDU in Thuringia removed veteran politician Dagmar Schipanski from the list of proposed electors after she voiced support for another candidate (Langenau, 2010). Other parties appear to hold one-on-one interviews with potential EPEs (Müller, 2017).

6 Although these parties are unlikely to act as one, using a combined vote share provides a better estimate of ‘risk’ as conceptualised above.

7 Similarly, the SPD’s delegation from Mecklenburg-West Pomerania included the minister-president who, having served in the federal government prior to her appointment, was not a member of the state legislature. Horst Seehofer, then minister-president of Bavaria was an EPE in the Federal Conventions of 2009, 2010 and 2012 for the same reason.