Risk analysis and climate change

Abstract

There is an increasing emphasis on risk-based approaches in the scientific and economic assessment of climate change, exemplified by the Stern Report and IPPC 4th Assessment. In the United Kingdom, risk discourse also increasingly dominates environmental policy-making and governance. The use of risk assessment, management and communication practices in climate change governance and policy is critically examined, utilising an interpretation of ‘risk’ as a knowledge practice for informing decision-making and an instrument for governing populations. In elucidating current risk practices, alongside key critiques and varied proposals for revised approaches to risk characterisation, both the capacities and limitations of a risk basis for policy aimed at delivering adaptation and deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are examined. While contemporary risk approaches align well with dominant political rationalities in affluent Western democracies, they have serious limitations as a basis for the delivery of aggressive climate policy aims.

Keywords:

• risk
• uncertainty
• climate change
• policy

Acknowledgements

Preparation of this chapter was supported by the Leverhulme Trust (award F/00 407/AG). We wish to thank Tim O'Riordan, Henry Rothstein, Hugh Compston and an anonymous reviewer for helpful comments.