The political economy of tropical deforestation: assessing models and motives

Abstract

There is renewed interest in identifying the causes of deforestation because it contributes about 17% of the annual emissions of greenhouse gases. Despite considerable efforts, universal causes of tropical deforestation remain elusive. The existing models of tropical deforestation are assessed, and the problems involved in approaching the issue through the lens of governance reforms are examined. Although corruption continues to thrive, global and local economic incentives remain powerful motivating forces for deforestation. Because of the variation in regional and country causes, it may not be possible to derive a more unified theory, and general models of deforestation will continue to lack predictive value. Policies that demand reform in developing countries with high rates of deforestation will be ineffective unless they address the power, incentives and culture of local political elites.

Keywords:

• deforestation
• governance
• political economy
• corruption

Notes

 1. Indeed, some may argue that deforestation continues because of structural adjustment policies; in particular, the requirements of some policies that timber exports be increased to earn hard currency to repay external debts.

 2. There is conflicting evidence over whether dictatorships are inherently stable or unstable. See Anderson (1988), Ludwig (2002) and McCarthy (2007).

 3. The statistical evidence presented by Didia, however, is not satisfactory, as many potential causal factors are not included in his regression analysis. The effect of such missing variables needs to be tested to ascertain whether the democracy index remained statistically significant.

 4. Above $6000 per capita income, both democracies and dictatorships are said to become more stable. Yet dictatorships also survive, or succeed one another, in the very poor countries with per capita income below $1000; they are somewhat less stable in countries with incomes between $1101 and $4000 and even less so between $4000 and $6000. According to the authors, the emergence of democracy is not a by-product of economic development. Democracy is or is not established by political actors pursuing their goals, and it can be initiated at any level of development. Only once it is established do economic constraints play a role: the chances for the survival of democracy are greater when the country is richer. Yet if they succeed in generating development, democracies can survive even in the poorest nations (Przeworski and Limongi 1997).

 5. Although Tasmania is not tropical, methodologically the analysis of tropical deforestation does not need to rely solely on case studies from the tropics. Unlike Indonesia, Australia has long been considered to be a liberal democracy, and yet abuse of the democratic process was clearly evident in this case.

 6. For an account of the political and judicial process surrounding the pulp mill, see ‘Law and justice part company – Tasmanian pulp mill’. Tasmanian Times, 16 May, 2008.

 7. There is no commonly accepted academic definition of governance. For more detail on the historical development of this concept, see Kjaer (2004).

 8. Although Williamson attempts to distance the Washington Consensus from neo-liberalism (Williamson 2004), many would argue that they are interchangeable.

 9. Rodrik (2006, p.978) summarises the ‘Augmented’ Washington Consensus as the original 10 items, plus: corporate governance, anti-corruption, flexible labour markets, WTO agreements, financial codes and standards, ‘prudent’ capital-account opening, non-intermediate exchange rate regimes, independent central banks/inflation targeting, social safety nets and targeted poverty reduction.

10. State-building focuses on improving the institutions of government and, like the second-generation reforms for economic development, they direct a developing country towards what a well-functioning state should look like, i.e. a modern Western state (see Rotberg 2004).

11. Goldsmith (2007) tests the historical causal relationship between governance and development and does not exclude the possibility that future improvements in governance could lead to higher and sustained rates of economic growth.

12. That deforestation has been halted in developed countries is not necessarily due to the willingness or the success of governments to do so; it could be the result of economic factors such as those described by the forest transition theory.

13. For a discussion of the historical change in the view of nature towards deforestation, see Williams (2003, pp. 100–101).