The mother of all effects? Stability and change in Greens party identification in Australia

ABSTRACT

The Australian Greens only formed as a national party in 1992. Here, some of the first young Australians able to inherit Greens party identity are examined. Analysis of youth cohort data from the state of Queensland, spanning 5 years (n = 2160; aged 17–22), shows that parental political affiliation (especially maternal affiliation) strongly influences Greens party identification as it does for the major parties. However, Greens are less likely than major party identifiers to exhibit stable party allegiances over time. Defections between Greens and Labor are also far more likely than between these parties and conservative parties (Liberals or Nationals). The comparatively recent formation of the Australian Greens accounts for the relative instability of Greens identity over time. Nevertheless, inter-generational transmission of Greens identity should translate into a relatively stable electoral base for the Greens, helping ensure they remain an influential presence in Australian federal politics.

KEYWORDS:

• Party identification
• Green parties
• Green voting
• Australia

Disclosure statement

No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

Notes

1. According to Turnbull and Vromen (2006, p. 456–457), ‘[A]ctivists were suspicious of formal party organisations becoming elite-driven and working against their ethic of participatory democracy’.

2. The Liberal Party replaced the United Australia Party founded in 1931, which in turn succeeded the Nationalist Party of Australia formed in 1917.

3. In Queensland, Premier Anna Bligh’s Labor government ruled from 13/09/2007 to 26/03/2012, followed by Campbell Newman’s Liberal National government from 26/03/2012 to 14/02/2015 and most recently Labor Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk, since 14/02/2015.

4. Question wording, Our Lives: ‘Thinking about Australian political parties, would you consider yourself a supporter of the Labor party, Liberal party, National party or some other party?’ AES: ‘Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as Liberal, Labor, National or what?’

5. Minor party responses are omitted from these results.

6. Australian Election Study results for Greens party ID are as follows: 1996: 1%, 1998: 2%, 2001: 3%, 2004: 5%, 2007: 6%; 2010 6%, 2013: 6%, and 2016: 9% (Cameron and McAllister 2016, p. 28).

Additional information

Funding

This work was supported by the Australian Research Council: [Grant Number DP160100360].