Modelling trajectories through the educational system in North West England

Abstract

The main aim of this paper is to identify those school‐level and locality‐level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult’s educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and ‘A’‐level scores. By applying three‐level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we find no evidence of any locality‐level effects. Overall, none of the explanatory variables conventionally considered to affect educational attainment had a consistent effect across all three stages. Rather, each explanatory variable had a contingent effect at specific points within the overall trajectory of educational outcomes.

Keywords:

• GCSE scores
• track taken at age 16
• ‘A’‐level scores
• multi‐level models
• linear regression
• multinomial logit

Notes

1. See Department of Education and Skills website (www.dfes.gov.uk/performancetables/nscoringsystem). The scoring system gave an A∗ grade eight points, an A grade seven points, a B grade six points, and so on.

2. These were obtained online (www.dfee.gov.uk/cgi‐bin/shschool1‐99?school=).

3. The effects of denominational schools on educational attainment are discussed in Morris (2005).

4. The growth of specially designated schools is outlined in Taylor, Fitz, and Gorard (2005).

5. These were based upon the average of the previous four years’ GCSE results.

6. Benton et al. (2003) have provided a study of results in maintained secondary schools in England that revealed the importance of different types of schools for GCSE attainment scores.

7. Specialist schools have been studied by Jesson (2001) and Schagen et al. (2002) and Levacic and Jenkins (2006). The latter article used a three‐level multi‐level model similar in design to our own. The three levels were LEA, school attended and pupil. The authors reported that attending a specialist school had a small positive effect on pupils’ GCSE point scores.

8. Respondents lived in Blackburn or Rochdale. However, not all had attended Blackburn LEA or Rochdale LEA schools at the age of 16 years.

9. ‘A’‐level results in 2006, as reported in, for example, The Guardian (Friday 18 August 2006, 12–13).